Nei mafuta isingadhuri? The for mitengo mafuta

In kuwa 2014, vanhu vakawanda vakatanga kushamisika sei mafuta isingadhuri. Kutangira September 5, mutengo pezvitsiga ose huni vakatanga chokururamisa nacho. The kuitika mberi nhasi. History inoratidza kuti panguva mumusika mafuta dzakawanda aikosha prerequisites kuti kukura uye kuderera mune mitengo, kusanganisira avo vakasikwa artificially. Autumn 2014 haina chakafukidzwa kwete mumwe munhau.

Ko nyaya?

The girafu kuti mitengo mafuta nguva nenguva iri kukurumidza kufamba chete mirayiridzo munhoroondo yose nezvokuvapo kumusika. Mumwe Zvikamu vakatora nzvimbo gore pamberi kutanga Gulf War. Nepo gwapa mutengo dzamafuta akanga 18,05 chete madhora. Munguva yehondo, mutengo mafuta muchiso "Brent" asvika pachiyero $ 29, uye panguva iyoyo dzakaitika yepamusorosoro pa $ 41,5. An dzinonakidza Chokwadi ndechokuti zuva isati yatanga ruvengo, uye zuva rakatevera pashure pamutemo mugumo, chinotsva mutengo akanga akafanana - kuti 19,93 madhora muzana dhiramu. Zvakadaro kwakaitika munguva vechiIslam Revolution muna Iran munguva iri Iran-Iraq hondo, panguva Asian zvoupfumi kuGreece uye munguva yehondo yechipiri muna Iraq. Muna September 2014, haana kuvimbisa munhu huru kuwa. Kufanana ose gore, musi pakanyorwa August, mutengo yakawira September. The donhwe haana kukosha, chete 4.5%.

nokudonha

Kuwa 4.5% ikagara October, uye mubvunzo pamusoro sei nhasi ari kuwana mafuta isingadhuri, uye pari richiri kushanda. Kana pakati kuwa muna mitengo mafuta aiva pachiyero 86,4 emadhora por mudende, vaongorori vakatanga kunetseka. Izvi imhaka yokuti nyika hapana prerequisites zveupfumi havana kuti chiitiko ichi. Upfumi nyika nyika, kunyange akanga kuderera, asi dambudziko nemafashamo kana kudana zvakanga matambudziko chaizvo. pasi rino apo vashoma marefu yanhasi mutengo pamwero wakati okupedzisira hwakanyorwa muna 2010 pashure 2008 dambudziko gore. Vezvenhau dzenyika makatanga vanoshingaira kuita mashoko mhaka kuitika US simbi musika evanhu. Chii chakaitika chokwadi, hazviiti kutaura chaizvo, asi nezvoupfumi kusiyanisa akawanda zvingawedzera kana zviitiko.

shale kubvuta masimba

Vazhinji nyanzvi enyika yakati kuti mafuta Falls mutengo nokuda yakanyatsovanzwa chairo mutengo namafuta shale kukura muUnited States. Mari dzichiri chicherwa deposits dererei zvikuru pane zvakanga vakazivisa pachena. Panguva Geneva Conference, vamiririri mikuru mafuta makambani akadai Morgan Stanley, Eagle Ford uye Barclays Plc., Akati kuti mutengo shale rinochiwedzera kugadzirwa anogona dzinosiyana 30 kusvika 60 madhora muzana dhiramu. Izvi zvinoratidza kuti mutengo "ndarama dema" pamisika nyika hakukoshi. Zvakange akaitawo zvakafanotaurwa kuti October mutengo donhwe inofanira kuguma nokukurumidza. Zvinosuruvarisa, mafuta mutengo for asina kuzadziswa.

Bata weOPEC

The chinhu chechipiri, izvo zvakazoita kuti nezvemhosva mubvunzo wokuti nei isingadhuri mafuta - ari oversupply pamusoro pamusika. Akawanda pamusoro pamisika nyika inoenda "ndarama dema" kubva Iran. Vazvo kubva muLatin America uye Africa akatanga kugara kuchikosha mugove musika. Policy chengetedzo mu mitengo mafuta nokuderedza ayo kurimwa vhoriyamu kwave categorically nekurambwa weOPEC nyika. A guru muchinangwa nechitarisiko hombe pfupiro kuridza zvirango kuti EU akasimudza rinezvigaro Iranian ngarava kambani NITC. The EU nokushingaira inotsigira Tehran, izvo mumwe zvikuru bhizimisi. Chinotsva akaiswa pamusoro kumusika uye kubva US vagadziri. Kutaura zvakawanda, mumakore achangopfuura yava paakapiwa yakawanda US yesangano iri migodhi zvekutepfenyura kunyika dzakadai South Sudan, Chad, Equatorial Guinea neMozambique.

Zvinoyerera yamafuta US pamusika

Nyanzvi dzakawanda dziri kushamisika sei mafuta isingadhuri, taura yose Reset America ari pamusika guru vhoriyamu peturu. Part of National kuchengeterwa akanga dzinounzwa kutengeswa nokuda yakaderera mutengo shale kukura. Pashure America ave kuita kwakadaro kutengeswa muCanada, iyo vakatanga kurwira kwavo zvavo kweArctic, uchitanga kugadzira nenharaunda. Zvinofanira pamusoro kugadzirira nesananguro President Obama muna 2017, iyo anosarudza ayo gwara pachinhu kumusika mafuta dzakawanda.

yakakanganiswa Zvaifungidzirwa

Nhasi, mafuta anodonhedza mutengo, uye nokuti pakati Mumatsutso 2014, nevaichinja zhinji vanotarisirwa atangezve mu mitengo mafuta pashure pokuwa. In kwayo kushurudzira zvenyika vaongorori vanosemburwa kubva dzidziso dzevagari kusawirirana munyika dzechiArabhu nyika uye vanorasikirwa. mashoko enhema pamusoro kuparadzwa chokufambisa migwagwa uye nzvimbo mafuta kurimwa munzvimbo Arab munyika haana kutamba mumaoko nevaya vanofungidzira. Panzvimbo zvinotarisirwa ikure kuparadza chinouraya yokuIraq uye Libya haana kuitika. Kusiyana, hakuna ikozvino havana kushanda oga, asi maviri ekisipoti centre. Hondo iri kuti hazvina kukuvadza mafuta uye gasi indasitiri.

Iye ari kushingaira kutevera kodzero dzayo uye Kurdistan kunze kwenyika mafuta zvinofungidzirwa pa $ 4 billion. Zvatisingakwanisi uye kuedza kumisa romugove migero Iran yakaguma kukundikana. Muzhizha ra2013 rave wakarondedzera uchangamire quasi Arab Caliphate, kuburikidza iyo kumisika zvifambiswe "Akasiya" mafuta. State dzidzo chete kwakamutsa chokufambisa kuenda Europe ine zvakachipa Semi-pamutemo uye zvisiri pamutemo mafuta.

Change nzira

The girafu kuti mitengo mafuta anoramba kutamira downwards nokuda achinje zvikuru waro pakukurukura pakutengeserana. Kurwisa US mauto musi Siria rakawedzera Turkish mirayiridzo kunze kwenyika kubva Iraq. Under pabutiro pakurwisa Khilafah kuparadza inini anenge 27 painocheneserwa uye pakukura reSiriya chirimwa. Somugumisiro, VaSiria akasiya mazita chikuru bhizimisi peturu kubva Iraq. nzvimbo yaro rakakundwa hunobudirira nyika dzakadai Kurdistan uye Turkey. More zvakanaka logistics inotokonya donhwe munyika mitengo. Oil romugove nomumwe kunyika Iraq nehafu nguva yakawanda mumatanda, inova Russia. Akawira mitengo mafuta acharamba nokuda kukwikwidzana pakati penyika. Achideredza mutengo mutemo, zvikuru bhizimisi, kunyanya weOPEC, anoda kusunda vakwikwidzi zvose.

Kunetsana pakati America uye Russia

Vanamazvikokota vakawanda vakaedza kutsanangura nei Russia kwava mafuta isingadhuri, yeuka "hondo inotonhora" zvakanaka akwegura pakati America uye Russia. The zvirango zvavakatemerwa pamusoro nhandare reuto zvikapesana Ukraine, vakanga vasina kunyatsodzivirirwa simba uye upfumi Russian haana kutendera. Nokufungidzira kunoratidza kuedza kupesvedzera zviito hurumende yeRussia nokudzora nyika mafuta mutengo. Achideredza mutengo peturu kunotungamirira zvinoderedza mamiriro kwemari munyika dhora mazwi. Somugumisiro, Ruble pamusoro dhora simba. upfumi munyika kuri kutadza kutsigira mugodhi indasitiri iri yakafanira mari. The kupokana ari kubvuma izvi chete kuti ari donhwe mitengo mafuta sei kwete chete Russian, asiwo United States, mamwe marudzi akawanda.

Secondary zvinhu mafuta inodonha

Purogiramu mafuta mitengo kuratidza rigone kuitika, kwete chete zvichikonzerwa usingaoneki Pakutanga, zvoupfumi zvinhu. Direction kusimbisa vakawanda yechipiri Migumisiro:

• Climate change munyika.
• Yokudzidza kufamba kuwana minda itsva peArctic.
• Kungonetseka zvisina Fukushima chirwere ari simba zvekutepfenyura. Misika gasi uye mafuta kuwedzera yekudyidzana mu bhuku.
• Active Kugadzirwa ruzivo kuti mafuta kupora, kutsvaka nzira dzakasiyana yomunda kukura.

Chii chinoitika chinotevera?

Nyanzvi mafungiro pamusoro mubvunzo nei mafuta isingadhuri, zvishoma asatenderwe nokuda zvoupfumi mamiriro ezvinhu munyika uye tichishingaira weboka nyika musika mafuta. Muchiitiko chino, vakawanda vatambi nezvezvakanaka zvakanaka Zvaizobuda ezvinhu. On nyaya iyi, pfungwa dzakawanda zvikuru bhizimisi nhumbi. With yanhasi mafuta mitengo, nyanzvi vakagara vaparidzawo anenge $ 55:

• Kuti mutengo pa $ 60 vari kurerekera anozivikanwa vaongorori nyika, mafuta uye kubvunza makambani, nyanzvi dzinoti.
• US Energy Information Administration, muna January akadana Zvakanyanya Kunaka Panguva Yepamuviri mafuta mutengo chete Upfu $ 58 emadhora.
• Inoshandiswa "Prime", nokubvunzurudza anenge 150 vaongorori, anopa for wake mitengo mafuta. Ivo kufungidzira kuchinja kukosha mudhiramu kubva 50 madhora 80.
• Vakaongorora anozivikanwa kambani "Goldman Sachs" akamira pamusoro for kuti $ 50.
• Bank of America Merrill Lynch ari vachitamba mutengo 40 emadhora por dhiramu.
• Purezidhendi Lukoil payakaramba mutengo mafuta pa $ 60 chete dhiramu.
• Morgan Stanley nyanzvi dzinoti pakutanga - chechipiri kota 2015 mutengo mafuta ngauitwe mukati $ 57. Panyaya iyi, wechitatu uye chechina kota gore, maererano vamiririri kambani, anovimbisa rakapinza kuwedzera mutengo epetroleum zvigadzirwa kuti kukosha $ 70.
• mabhanga Swiss vari kutarisa mamiriro ezvinhu uye panguva dzose netariro. Vanotenda muna peturu mitengo yakaiswa pa 70 - 85 madhora.

Pasinei kurambirwa mafuta makambani makuru akawanda munyika ari kuronga dzavo uye zvirongwa, zvavaitarisira vanoramba tariro chaizvo. Pasinei vaitofanira mutemo pamusoro chikamu weOPEC, ruzhinji nyanzvi vanowanzomuitira kufunga kuti nokukurumidza zvinhu zviri dzichienderana panyika musika mafuta, uye vose Nokurasikirwa chakakonzerwa namaneja zvose nyika uye munhu nemakambani vachakwanisa apore. Panguva ino, kuwira muitiro, uye nei isingadhuri mafuta nhasi, hakuna basa kutsanangura.