Muna US Oil: mutengo mutengo, vhoriyamu kukura, simba

Kana kutarira nyika pamusika mafuta ari yose, tinogona zvakachengeteka kutaura kuti US ndiye nyika chete munyika, iyo yave kushingaira shale kupfuma. Dzimwe nyika refu vakasiya pfungwa iyi, nokuti vanofunga kuti hazvibatsiri uye mari kudhura. Active oiri muUnited States akatanga chete muna 2014 pakati chirimo. Kwekutanga kuedza kukudziridza mafuta deposits muPoland uye muHungary, asi vose vakatadza. tarisiro Great basa Ukraine, asi ndiko chete nezvacho 2018.

Shale mabasa ari US

US kugadzirwa mafuta shale rakawedzera muna 2014. Kusvika panguva US zvirongwa akafukidza vanenge 10% pose mafuta kugadzirwa. Kare 2005 pamusoro nharaunda neHurumende kuzoumba hurongwa mamiriyoni 7.5 emiti yemafuta, uye muna 2014 chakarurama ichi asvika kukosha mamiriyoni 9 emiti. Tikafunga mamiriyoni 90 emiti, iyo nyika yose mined pamwechete, mutengo kwazvo chinokosha. Hazvina ukama uyu uye kuva mhikuriso kuti akasundudzira kune unopinza rutapudzo mutengo "ndarama dema" iri.

Chii mutengo mafuta nepamusika mafuta chendangariro ari profitability ari kukura simba iri US?

muna US mari inoshandiswa mafuta akasiyana yekudyidzana nokuda mudunhu. Mari dzichiri kunobva kunokanganisa kudzama panowanikwa mafuta uye Kuwanikwa mvura yakachena. Pakazosvika 2005, avhareji kambani kushandisa kugadzirwa shale huni, akakwanisa kusvika padanho pasina kukuvadza nekuda mari yokupedzisira ari pamusika pa $ 75 chete dhiramu. A gore kare kuna US kugadzirwa kuti purofiti, nepamusika dzakawanda, hazvifaniri richawira pasi 57 madhora. Kune nzvimbo, akadai North Dokota apo dzokubudisa hazvikudyiri mari yakawanda mafuta ari mutengo $ 42 uye pasi. US kugadzirwa mafuta shale muna Mackenzie muruwa kunodyira chete $ 24. Kana muchiramba ose zviratidzi pamwe chete, zvinova pachena kuti mafuta chidimbu kubva America anokwanisa kupikisa uye kwete sezvinoita drawdowns pamusoro pamusika dzakawanda. Pasinei nemamiriro ezvinhu yakatanga, Developers mafuta vane zvavo 10% unonyatsoratidza nomumwe dhiramu. Chivimbo anoita chokwadi kuti mari "ndarama dema" haibatanidzi mitero uye excise mabasa, izvo mune dzimwe nyika kuumba vanenge 60% zvitsigiro mutengo. Sei zvakadaro? Zvikuru nyore, US mitero iri simba indasitiri havasi mhosva.

Kuti kuitwawo "shale chimurenga"?

Shale yechimurenga America ane tarisiro yakanaka. Izvi imhaka zvikurukuru kuti oiri iri US yave kuwana isingadhuri. Anoenda izvozvo, kwete chete pave deposits matsva, asi vo sumo iri muitiro dzichiri michina mitsva peturu. Maererano rokutanga Masvomhu, munguva yemberi iri pedyo mari nokuyerera rimwe tsime basa vaigona kuderedzwa vanenge 40%. The kukura simba iri US mafuta kurimwa nokuda chaizvo ari mutemo. Companies kushanda munzvimbo iyi, havasi kunonyorwa, nekuti kusvikira ichangopfuura, kuti indasitiri haina vaiona zvinovimbisa. The musika ari hunodzorwa makambani duku, izvo kuvavarira kuwedzera mari yavanowana uye kuti kutsvaka rationalization okuwana nzira. Ivo mari dzavo nenzira okukura.

Maberere ramangwana

Mavhoriyamu iri US mafuta kugadzirwa muna 2015-2016, maererano vaongorori, zvichaita chete wedzera. Kunyange kuwa pamusika nyika mutengo kumativi 60% haana kukanganisa mamiriro uye tarisiro. Energy kwenguva pfupi for a Zvenguva Pfupi Energy Outlook munyika guru nesangano iri yenhema. Iye anotaura chinangwa ehurumende rokurega pachake zvinyorwa zvayo. The kunonyanyisa Vhoriyamu oiri muUnited States zvakanyorwa muna 1970 mamiriyoni 9.6 emiti. EIA nechivimbo anozivisa kuti zvakafanira kumirira kuwedzera mafuta kugadzirwa Vhoriyamu 600 zviuru matani kubudikidza pakati 2015 uye mavambo 2016 - ne 200 zviuru emiti pazuva.

On kuti tycoons count mafuta?

Pasinei chokwadi kuti oiri muUnited States ndiyo chinoshingaira nzira, maonero ari hwemangwana makambani mafuta vakapesana pakati varidzi. Mamwe makambani chakamboti matsime kukura deposits itsva uye kumisa tsvakurudzo, vamwe tariro uye chivimbo nezveramangwana, kwete kuvimba musika kuzoita mari huni idukusa kuti kukosha $ 100.

ramangwana rakajeka anokwevera ndechokuti America ari kuenda kubuda mafuta munyika kuyanzva. Kana muna 2005 nyika yave zvaitsamira mafuta kubva bhizimisi nevanhu 60%, ipapo 2011 mufananidzo uyu akawira 42%. The Muitiro havana kuchinja, uye nhasi, ndiEzekieri - yawedzera. Manufacturers anogona zvakachengeteka kuvimba kwokudiwa mafuta ari mamiriro. Kunyange kana hazvizoiti zvinobvira kuziva parafini pamisika dzakawanda, ruchapinda pasi nyundo pasi mumhuri pamusika.

Chii vaongorori vanoti?

According kune vanoongorora, muna 2015 mari yose Brent sokusingagutsi achamira mukati 58 madhora por dhiramu. The for 2016 chinotonyanya netariro. Apo US mafuta kugadzirwa mari achadonha pedyo wechitatu, ayo musika mutengo yakasvika 75 madhora. Energy kunobva WTI achaita mari ukuwo, $ 55 uye 72. The musika mafuta nyanzvi dzinobvumirana kuti mari "ndarama dema" kune chipo nguva kurerutswa zvikuru. Mumakore mashomanana akatevera, mutengo havazokwanisi kusvika nangananga $ 100. Mamiriro ezvinhu akadaro anogona kuonekwa aine kunonoka gumi. muna US Kuwedzera oiri havagoni kufukidza kudiwa. Uwandu ruzivo, izvo zvinoda huni, kuwedzera zvakanyatsorongwa. Temporary mutengo reductions chokuita kurega kunotanga kukura upfumi munyika dzakawanda. Panongotanga mamiriro vakadzokera dzose, hazvingagamuchirwi chete kuitwa asi zvimwe vaputsa $ 100 muganhu.

US mafuta musika

US anonzwa chivimbo panyika pamusika uye kunyange kuedza weOPEC nhengo inoti Kubvisa vakwikwidzi kubva niche korona kukundikana. Sezvo kuderera kudiwa, izvo kare aumba mukuru chikamu America, kugoverwa inowedzerawo. Somugumisiro, mari huni Falls. Mamiriro acho ezvinhu anogona kunzi kuedza gurunurai simba vatambi kutengeserana. Zvinokosha kucherechedza kwete chete kukura oiri muna US, asi geopolitical chinzvimbo. On mundima ehurumende zvikuru yemakwikwi uye wakasununguka zvakatipoteredza bhizimisi iri simba zvekutepfenyura. In vatambi zviduku, uye ndivo vakawanda, kuva akasununguka ruoko. Ndicho kuvimbika Hurumende anobvumira hurumende kuti nechivimbo mira netsoka dzavo kunyange zvakadaro dzakaoma. The pamasimba US pamusoro mamiriro ezvinhu ari kukura zvakare nekuvongwa zvakanyatsorongwa kuwedzera ayo matura "ndarama dema".

Muchirwisa colour kunyika kwenyika akacherekedza chinokosha budiriro, oiri muUnited States. mutengo chati nemaziso kunoratidza kuti hurumende pakanatsiridzwa zvachose mafuta pamusika dzakawanda. Kokutanga mumakore mazhinji weOPEC munyika uye Russia achava vakakodzera mukwikwidzi. Kana akanga apfuura State aiita zvarwo uye zvisarudzo kufungisisa chete zvinobatsira ayo gwara zvino kuti chose dzokorora. Chete nenzira iyi zvichiita kuti Zviyero kudzikamisa mafuta chidimbu.

chivimbo shure

America haisi chete kuparuka pamusoro musika mafuta, zvishoma nezvishoma iri kuwedzera shure kwayo. Saka, yezvokutengeserana reserves mafuta dzinoenderana bhuku mambure kupinzwa kundima mazuva anopfuura 164. Muna December 2013, nhamba iyi yakanga akaenzana 171 zuva, uye muna 2007 asati dambudziko - mazuva 80. Kupinzwa kuCanada uye Mexico pakukosha ichi hachina kwaisanganisira. Nokudaro zvazvingava kunowedzera kuunhu mazuva 279. Uye kana iwe kufungawo kwete chete vezvokutengeserana asiwo inokosha reserves, chirungamutauro vachangoerekana ave akaenzana mazuva 450. Uyu kwoumbozha inodzivirira buffer kuti achachengeta upfumi munyika kunyange romugove disruptions. Anogona kuve nhangaruvanze kuti kuderedza mitengo mafuta nepamusika nyika dzakaderera zvikuru pane chaiko mufananidzo $ 47 iri mishoma yakatevera. Tava kuderera kuwa kunotarisirwa pakati kwematsutso 2015.