"Zvisingavaki muviri" kureva - chii ichi? Chii chichaitika pashure Russian "zvisingavaki muviri" kureva

Nhasi munhau zvino obva skips mbiru pamusoro basa ane chaicho tinyatsonzwisisa Russia rinonzi "marara" kureva. Tsanangudzo iyi ichiri kujeka kune vakawanda, nokuti avhareji munhu anogona kunzwisisa murombo nemashoko zvemari, uye kana zvose zvakawanda kana zvishoma akajeka yavose sezvavakatarirwa, saka jargon akadai "marara", unofanira kuudza zvizere. On ichi uye zvimwe kudzvanya panyaya upfumi gare gare munyaya ino.

Chiiko ichi

Kuti tinzwisise zvazvinoreva "marara" rating, tinofanira kutanga kunzwisisa tsanangudzo "chikwereti zvibozwa." Chero munhu, kambani kana kunyange nyika inogona kuva kwavo solvency Rating. Somuenzaniso, mabhengi kakawanda vanoumba ratings pamusoro anokwereta dzavo, uye kana totaura kuongorora kuti kusachinja-chinja pane Makambani makuru kana rinoti, vari mubasa kushandiswa akazvimirira Rating masangano. Pakati pavo vane FitchRatings, Moody uye Standard Nevarombo vake (S & P), vane mabasa kungapfuurira yose, uye maonero avo vari akateerera makambani akawanda.

Panyaya States, nenhamba dzinobva kuongorora hupfumi ezvinhu, Gengi rudzi mari uye zvimwe zvinhu.

Hatigoni kutaura kuti pane zvimwe hurongwa rating, mumwe sangano nzira dzavo uye zviratidzo. mamakisi All inogona kukamurwa nokubatira chemhando, yakakwirira, unosvikirwa unhu. Vakatevera ngozi uye dzokufungidzira inopikira, uyewo Zvaifungidzirwa kuti pedyo default. "Zvisingavaki muviri" kureva - kuzvipira chete mhando yakadaro.

Zvinokonzera dambudziko kuRussia

Kunyange zvazvo reRussia chikwereti Rating dzakaratidzirwa achangopfuura makore yakakwirira yakati sandara, asi akanga asiri "marara" uye solvency munyika kunyanya hazvigoni vakakonona. The matambudziko akatanga muna 2014, mushure annexation pamusoro Crimea uye nekutambira zvirango ne US uye EU. All yakawedzera nokuwa mu mitengo mafuta, triggering chinokosha depreciation pamusoro Ruble. Izvi uye zvimwe vakapa usimuke kutaura dambudziko, uye kunyange mukana default muRussia.

Kazhinji, nyika ne "zvinhu zvisingavaki muviri" rating, vane simba upfumi, matambudziko akawanda. Zvino, dzakawanda akatanga kutaura nezvazvo Russia kupinda ari mazita vasingadzikurudzire. Sezvineiwo, kokupedzisira munyika chikwereti Rating rakanga nenhanho "zvisingavaki muviri" muna 2005.

tariro Zvaifungidzirwa

Pakapera 2014 aimbova rezvemari Alexei Kudrin akati kuti dzakazara zvoupfumi kunotanga munyika. Maererano naye Russia muna 2015, anogona kupiwa munhu "zvisingavaki muviri" rating, chichagamuchirwa kunokonzerwa kwete bedzi pasi mafuta mitengo - zvirango uyewo kutsamwisa kuderera mune upfumi. Maererano for aimbova mutungamiriri Bazi nyika GDP kuchaita kutsauka nokuda dzinenge 2%, vachifungidzira kuti mafuta achaita mari $ 80, nemitengo yakaderera pedyo $ 60 donhwe upfumi aigona kusvika 4%.

Kudrin akatiwo kuti hurumende iri kukwana policies, saka yakaderera kana razero kukura hakudzivisiki uye pasina zvokunze zvinetso chokuita mitengo mafuta uye zvirango.

vanodira

Pakutanga 2015, Fitch kutura tinyatsonzwisisa kuti solvency yeRussia kusvikira pachiyero BBB- ndiro rokupedzisira danho iri mubhizimisi nharaunda, ipapo panozouya "marara" kureva. Russia rakapiwa akaipa riro ramangwana.

Nguva pfupi pashure pacho, kureva masangano S & P uye Moody aiva kutura reRussia chikwereti Rating kuti dzokufungidzira, kana kuti vanonzi "zvisingavaki muviri". Maererano nemishumo dzavo, mumwe nei kuongororwa ndiye ziendamberi mukakavadzane Ukraine, iyo, mumwe nzira kana imwe, kunogonawo kukanganisa hupfumi ezvinhu Russia pacharo. Kuwedzera Rating inokanganisa mitengo mafuta yakaderera uye kusagadzikana Gengi National mari.

Moody rine, pakati pezvimwe zvinhu, anoti pane mukana yokuita Russian zvisarudzo zvakadaro hurumende, izvo kune pamwero ingachinja kwokunze chikwereti basa munyika iri nguva.

Zvinokosha kucherechedza kuti kana kunyatsoongorora wamasangano siyana kunosiyana, kutanga kufunga rakaipisisa fungidziro.

The zvinhu sezvazviri kuti Mutengo

"Big Three" chikwereti kureva masangano vari akazvimiririra masangano, kuongorora kwavo runoonekwa kusasarura uye chinangwa. Zvisinei, chokwadi chokuti sangano iri basa rimwe pashure pomumwe "zvisingavaki muviri" kureva dzeRussia, Russian Muushumiri Foreign sezvo chisarudzo enyika, benzi kubva zvoupfumi nemaonero uye zvainanga vachinetesa nyika. The Ministry akavimbisa kuti kufungidzira aya chikamu Western wokuti kumanikidza Russia kuburikidza zvirango.

Zvinokosha kucherechedza kuti chisarudzo sangano Moody kuti kuvapa Russian tinyatsonzwisisa Ba1, izvo rinongova chete chinoreva "zvisingavaki muviri" rating, Kudrin vaiona maloobyasnimym, pasinei akanga kare vaifunga nezvomukana yokuderedza reRussia changamire kureva kuti dzokufungidzira. Kusiyirira ndechokuti kusvika Rating uyu yakadzokororwa chete mwedzi ago - hazvisi pachena nei zvichidikanwa ikozvino.

Kupfuura kuparadza nyika

Roga, iro "marara" kureva haisi ngozi zvikuru, kunyanya sezvo upfumi kuwedzera kufurirwa zvakadai zvinokosha sezvo mutengo mafuta, ari Ruble, uyewo makambani zakreditovannost uye nemhuri. Tinogona kutaura kuti pasi chepamusoro unotarisana achangobuda matambudziko.

Countries ne "zvinhu zvisingavaki muviri" kureva vanogona kuomerwa kuwana zvikwereti kunze, sezvo kuna Russia, vakapiwa zvirango zvavakatemerwa pamusoro payo, pasi ratings masangano asiri kuchinja - aibuda mari kunyika shoma yekudyidzana muna 2014. Zvisinei, vakawanda mubhizimisi mari kumanikidza kurambidza mari iri upfumi ane "zvisingavaki muviri" rating, saka mutsika mari dzekunze anogona zvishoma shoma, asi hazvingaiti kuti kutsoropodza kuti upfumi hwenyika.

Taura pamusoro default

Kana norunyerekupe nezvomukana default, ivo zvirokwazvo Kuwedzeredza, uye jekiseni mokutya. Kana isu kutaura yakaderera ratings, kusvikira Category D, izvo zvinoreva yakakwirira mukana default, Russia achiri kure.

"Zvisingavaki muviri" kureva - ichi haisi mutongo, kunze dzimwe nyika chikwereti yeRussian Federation haasi mukuru uye ndiyo zvishoma kupfuura 10% kubva GDP, apo mune dzimwe nyika pamwe yepamusoro chepamusoro, chikwereti paruzhinji anogona pfuura GDP yavo. Kana zvakakodzera, Russia anogona kuramba ayo mitoro tichiregeredza dzimwe chinjanai reserves.

Unorevei "zvisingavaki muviri" kureva kuti Russia

Chokutanga, zvinofanira kutaurwa kuti "marara" kureva hazvirevi wokupedzisira yemasiraidhi munyika mugomba dambudziko. Muchirwisa colour kubva solvency yakaipa Russia nokufungidzira, uyewo vaongorori mafuta yakaderera vakafanotaura humwe mutengo depreciation pamusoro Ruble uye nezvimwe zvinetso zviri upfumi. Zvisinei, muna yechirimo Ruble yave vakaonga zvakasimba pamusoro dhora uye mitengo mafuta tidzikamiswe. Hurumende iri kutora matanho akakodzera kuti tikunde dambudziko.

Somuenzaniso, imwe "zvisingavaki muviri" kureva rweUkraine chokwadi zvinoratidza urombo mamiriro ezvinhu munyika, ane upfumi inotsamira Western Credits. Kana reRussia, zvinhu zvinogona kuchinja. Nokufamba kwenguva mamiriro zvichaita nani, uye ipapo kureva masangano adzokorore nokufungidzira hwavo.