Marudzi zvinogara. Stage uye nguva yose zvinogara

Tinozivei pamusoro zvinogara? Sezvo pfungwa iyi yakabatana hwedu uye chii basa nayo achitamba zvakatipoteredza? Chokwadi, tose tinoziva kuti chii. Asi ndidzo mhando zvinogara zviri, iri mubvunzo kunakidza.

Chii kutenderera

Ichi vakawanda pfungwa ine kushandiswa kwakapararira muminda mabasa evanhu akasiyana. Kutenderera - iri kunyanya kuva nezviito.

Kana iwe vanokurondedzera somunhu Generic rokuti, ndiko rakapedzwa kwemashoko acho uye michina zvinoumba chinhu kana chiitiko muchadenga uye nguva. Zviri denderedzwa zvimwe zviitiko kuti zvingadzokororwa pane zvikamu kana pasina mutsa.

Kuti uzive zvakawanda pamusoro pfungwa iyi, zvakakosha kuti funga inokosha marudzi zvinogara. Izwi iri rinoshandiswa minda zvesainzi siyana. Somuenzaniso, anogona kuwanikwa masvomhu, dzezvoupfumi, zvirongwa, wefizikisi, zvipenyu, jogirafi, mabhuku uye nevamwe vakawanda.

Ndezvipi zvinogara

Nhasi, zvinotevera vangazivikanwa:

1. mari:

- sangano cheupenyu kutenderera;

- hupenyu kutenderera chigadzirwa;

- kugadzirwa;

- woshanda;

- zvemari;

- Technology;

2. History.

3. zvirongwa kutenderera.

4. Math.

5. Thermodynamic.

6. Life.

7. kumwedzi.

8. wevanotungamirira.

9. Musical.

10. Cycle nyaya.

11. Cycle muchina.

12. Training.

13. Geographic (rezuva, womudenga, sedimentary zvinogara).

Ngatikurukurei chimwe nechimwe mhando zvizere.

Chii zvoupfumi kutenderera

zviratidzi Most kwezvoupfumi vane simba. Havana kumbobvira mira uye nguva dzose kuchinja. Vamwe vavo anogona kuonekwa cyclical, kureva ivo vanokura ipapo, ipapo kuwa zvakare. nokufamba izvi zvinonzi zvoupfumi zvinogara.

Zvinokosha kucherechedza kuti upfumi iri cyclical chero nyika, iyo tinoberekwa norudzi musika upfumi.

Saka, upfumi kutenderera - chinhu inodzokororwa nokufamba nenzira dzakasiyana-siyana dzemari zviratidzo, iyo yose kupa yakananga maitikiro uye kutaura ezvoupfumi basa munguva. Dzimwe nguva iyi inonzi "bhizimisi".

The zvoupfumi kutenderera kunoratidzwa emari rimwe firimu, guta, nyika, kana randomly vakasarudzwa kumatunhu nenyika.

Kufungidzira achaenda, zvakaoma neimwe nzira (mberi kana regression), sezvo kufurirwa dzakawanda dzakasiyana zvinhu. Nokufamba kazhinji kwemashifiti.

upfumi kutenderera rwakazara

Pane chinhu chakadai nguva yose kutenderera ari upfumi. Ichi ndechimwe nokuda nguva nguva pakati dzakafanana maitikiro maviri (mumatanho) upfumi basa anotongwa upfumi.

Four matanho anokosha wezvamatongerwe loop wakakwana.

Saka, dariro rokutanga zvoupfumi kutenderera ichamuka. It kunoratidzwa kumutsidzirwa pezvakaitwa zvose. Kana totaura National upfumi, panguva ino Danho yakaderera mitengo, vatengi chiwanzo vatenge akanga kumbosiyiwa panguva dambudziko.

The danho rechipiri - yepamusoro. Mumwedzi wokutanga kutotanga pane Kuwedzera uye nhamba inechirevo-soro nenhanho mubhizimisi basa. Nokuti National zvoupfumi zviratidzi rinozotora zvoupfumi basa ndiro yakaderera nenhanho kwemabasa, kupfuura vakarongeka kushanda emakambani, bhizimisi iri kukura uye kuwedzera rayo guru kuburikidza anomukweretesa. Mushure yepamusoro kunotevera pakarepo kusviba.

Third danho - kuderera. Ndiro danho panguva iyo upfumi huri kusangana kuderera kwebasa, kuderera. Mavhoriyamu okuwana kwenhumbi uye mabasa ungaderedza, padanho inivhesitimendi mapopoma. Tichifunga izvi zvinhu anotanga kusimudza padanho kwemabasa kuri kuwedzera uwandu nhumbi, kudiwa riri asipo, pane vanowira mitengo, nei mari vanowa, kudiwa anoramba kusviba. A refu uye kuramba tichishanda nguva zvoupfumi kudzikira anonzi mwoyo.

Danho chechina - pasi. Bottom uri yakadereresa pfungwa iri zvoupfumi basa. Panguva iyi, urovha mwero ndiko soro, padanho kugadzirwa iri duku. Pane nokuyerera zvakawandisa zvinhu kuti ave achibudiswa yapfuura nguva. Mitengo havachasungirwi pakugumburwa, zvishoma nezvishoma vanotanga kuwedzera Vhoriyamu kugadzirwa. danho iri kazhinji kupera, nokuti kumuka zvakare. Asi kare muenzaniso, kana pasi upfumi yakaenderera mberi kwemakore 10 (the Great Depression muna 1929-1939, ukuwo).

Types zvoupfumi zvinogara

In mabhuku nesayenzi pane kutanga nokuda kupatsanura maererano nguva yavo uye maitikiro. Kazhinji, zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti mhando zvoupfumi zvinogara, kune vanopfuura 1380 dzakabatana.

Funga inonyanya kufarirwa kupatsanura:

1. Short zvinogara Dzhozefa Kitchina. Duration - 2 kusvika 4 makore. The masayendisiti tsanangura ichi chokuti matura ose enyika yendarama kuchinja nguva dzose. Izvi zvaiva zvechokwadi ari 20s remakore rechi20. Nhasi masayendisiti tsanangura muchidimbu nguva hupfumi kutenderera kwakadaro, kuvapo nguva sokunonoka (lags) kuwana kweShanduro anodiwa Data kuti zvokutengeserana. Mienzaniso ndiwo saturation mumusika vamwe zvinhu. Manufacturing akagamuchira mashoko mushakabvu, nei pane overproduction kwenhumbi uye vanowanika pamusoro dzokuchengetera ayo.
2. Mid Clement Juglar kutenderera. Kutenderera nguva - kubva 7 kusvika 10 makore. I akazarura zvinogara izvi Economist French. Kuwedzera kutenderera nguva yakafanira kwete chete kune nguva lags kugadzirwa mashoko, asiwo rinononotsa inivhesitimendi zvisarudzo. Sezvo neeSultan ari zvebhizimisi chechetere mutoro uye bhuku nenhumbi Juglar mukwanisi dzidziso chokuti kuwanda uye bhuku mari iri pazvinhu yesangano iri zvebhizimisi, izvo naizvozvo kunowedzera nguva lag.
3. Kutenderera Simon Farrier (mutinhimira). American Economist uye akahwina mubayiro weNobel, yakawanikwa zvinogara izvi muna 1930. Maererano upenyu kutenderera womuenzaniso, nokureba mumakore 15-20. Tsanangudzo ya ichitanga bapiro, matambudziko wevanotungamirira pezvakaitwa (kuramba mutsika vatama), uyewo kuchinja pakuvaka zvekutepfenyura. Tichifunga izvi Kuznets famba anonziwo "wevanotungamirira" kana "kuvaka" zvinogara. To musi, kupfuura Kuznets zvinogara inokurukurwa se "zvemichina", sezvo chokuita kune dzose zvakagadzirwa ari muzvigadzirwa bhora zvakananga.
4. Long-rokuti Zvinonzi Nikolaya Kondrateva (kubvira 40 kusvika 60 years). Pane yave chavhurwa 20s remakore rechi20. Vanodanwa K-wave, kana K-zvinogara. Chokuita inokosha zvakagadzirwa zvakafanana ari hwemvura injini, kuti njanji, magetsi, dzomunyika injini, noruzivo rwemakombiyuta, uye zvakawanda. Matambudziko nguva kutenderera anogona kuva huru shanduko chimiro kugadzirwa nhumbi.

Unogonawo sarudza kunyange kwenguva zvinogara mhuka yakadai:

1. Forrester kutenderera. Ya mumakore 200 uye nokuda kuti vachinje iri kugadzirwa nezvinhu uye simba Inopa.
2. Toffler kutenderera. Maererano muenzaniso uyu upenyu kutenderera, nguva yose nguva iri 1-2 zviuru zvemakore. Rinotsanangura musayendisiti kuramba kutenderera pakukura yebudiriro uye pakatanga itsva zvaiitika masayendisiti zvose dzidziso uye tsika.

The kutenderera sangano upenyu

Kuti rinotsanangura ichi izwi? Zviri kunzwisisa zvebhizimisi zvimwe zvikamu huchangotanga kwarwo.

The chikuru nzendo upenyu kutenderera sangano vari:

1. Kuva. Kuyaruka, pane paumbwe chigadzirwa upenyu kutenderera (more pamusoro paikoko), sangano raJehovha zvinangwa, kutsvaka vamwe uye nokugadzirira pfungwa kuti Implementation, kutaridza zvikuru vakadzidziswa vashandi, uyewo nokubudiswa wokutanga kutongwa consignment. Panguva iyi, musoro unoumba munhu zano kuti zvebhizimisi - simba (mukuru simba), adaptive (zvakananga zvinodiwa mutengi) kana niche (nani pamusoro mamwe makambani ari mumwe zvoupenyu kugadzirwa zvinhu uye mabasa). Change Kureba kugadzirwa kutenderera
2. Danho rechipiri - kukura. Panguva iyi, chekambani kukura, nani utariri, wakawedzera tsvimbo, akatanga akasiyana-siyana incentives uye Standardization basa rinoitwa kuti kuwedzera kushanda zvakanaka kuti basa uye kugadzirwa. Uyewo pano kuongorora ukama resangano pamwe kwezvakatipoteredza, uye kushanda kwezvinhu zvinangwa uye zvaanokoshesa.
3. Maturity. Panguva ino upenyu kutenderera nesangano kukura Kudzikamiswa kunoitika. Panguva iyi kambani inowana aitungamirira chinzvimbo pamisika, kuramba richikura ayo chigadzirwa siyana, anovandudza nemamiriro sangano. Kana kambani vasvika padanho kukura, saka anogona kuramba yakatsiga chinzvimbo pamisika uye anokwanisa kumisa muenzaniso masangano "muduku".
4. The wokupedzisira pavaipfuura upenyu kutenderera ndiye kuderera. Panguva iyi, pane kuderera kudiwa zvigadzirwa, ezasi purofiti. Kuoneka vakwikwidzi akasimba ari pamusika, kana kudiwa zvigadzirwa anongoti nokupera. The ruzivo uye ruzivo vaunganidza pamusoro makore ariko wekambani, hakuchina anokwanisa zvakarurama midzi munyika rakasimba kuti maitiro pfungwa. Sei ruzivo ari usatsungirira ikozvino anogamuchira.

Product upenyu kutenderera

Izviwo, kudiwa nguva mumwe kana mumwe chigadzirwa riri pamusika. Izvi musika tsvakurudzo, nechinangwa chikuru pane mutengi pamusika. Hwaro ndiko kunzwisisa upenyu kutenderera - zvose iine nguva kuvapo pamisika, uye pakupedzisira kuti kutsiva mumwe chigadzirwa anouya itsva, zvikuru yepamusoro kana rweruzhinji.

Sezvinongoitikawo masangano, pane chinhu chakadai padariro chigadzirwa upenyu yatinofema. Kune vana:

1. Step Implementation. Panguva iyi, boka iri kukura kumusika kuti chigadzirwa mutsva, tichifunga nezveramangwana kudiwa imwe chigadzirwa. Kazhinji, panguva ino pane yakaderera rokutengesa kukura, zvingangoita vaaida. Mari yokutsvakurudza musika zvishoma, padanho makwikwi riri shoma.
2. Growth Stage. Panguva iyi, unogona kuchengeta kukurumidza kukura kudiwa zvigadzirwa. Wedzero rokutengesa uye mugadziri wacho kwemari. Kana kwokudiwa anotanga kuwa, nhumbi mumabhatiri dzokuchengetera sezvo vari kuzadza rinotanga kusiyira mutengo nhumbi dzayo kunokurumidza kutengeswa.
3. Stage zvokunamata uye saturation. Most unoda zvinhu akatozviita, wadii kukumbira kukura zvakadaro nokukurumidza kufarira chigadzirwa akarasika. Somugumisiro, padanho kudiwa zvasvika yepamusoro uye anowira, yakaiswa mukati nezverimwe.
4. Step kuderera. Kana musika ari yakadzikama donhwe kudiwa, nefuma kubva rokutengesa nhumbi uye vhoriyamu kwayo Implementation, saka sangano iri riri pavaipfuura chigadzirwa upenyu kutenderera "kuderera". Panyaya iyi, zvakasimba inopa kubva ezvinhu nenzira ina: kuvandudzika purogiramu yacho Marketing, kunatsurudza chigadzirwa magadzirirwo shanduko munzvimbo yayo pamusika kana kudzimwa pakati pagadzirwe kuchiitirwa chigadzirwa.

kugadzirwa kutenderera

Wakaisa iyi nezviito vane zvaioneka ano zvinhu (chinjwa yesangano iri boka - the ndeizvi paakapiwa mune mari uye kuti inogona vadzoserwa shure kupinda mari mukati kutenderera). Kureva kugadzirwa kutenderera - nenguva pakati kutenga zvokuvakisa kugadzirwa kuti rakapera chigadzirwa.

Nguva yose kugadzirwa kutenderera pa mumwe chirimwa yakasiyana. Zvose zvinoenderana kunzwisisa kwakaita chigadzirwa kugadzira muitiro, kugoverwa zvinhu, midziyo uye zvakawanda.

Zvinotevera date hunozodiwa kuverenga kutenderera:

- ya basa kutenderera;

- zvachose nguva dzongonyedzo (zvose kwesangano uye michina zvikonzero uye kutyora maererano kambani nokushanda purogiramu);

- dzinongoitika nguva pezvakaitwa.

Ya kwacho nguva - nguva apo munhu zvakananga kana kuti zvisina kunanga kunokanganisa zvinhu basa (zvokuvakisa kugadzirwa kwenhumbi). Kureva wakananga kugadzira okuwana (muzvigadzirwa kugadzirwa kutenderera). Zvinokoshawo kufunga chete nguva yaaipedza chisingazivi kumhanya akaererana muitiro yatinofema. Saka, achiwedzera ose ataurwa pamusoro apa nguva, tinowana Kureba kugadzirwa kutenderera.

uchishandisa kutenderera

Uyu musoro wakakura pfungwa, sezvo, kuwedzera kugadzirwa kutenderera, richiri zvinosanganisira nguva kuripwa Finished chigadzirwa. Kuri kuti kambani iri kushanda iri mberi mubhadharo, kuguma uchishandisa kutenderera ichava nguva ainge atumirwa pamusoro nenhumbi, uye kwete muripo.

Chokwadi, nguva iri uchishandisa kutenderera achava nguva kupfuura kugadzirwa yatinofema. Zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti mapfupi zvishwe vari sangano, kuti riskier zvichaita kushanda, uye mwero kwerunyararo ano zvinhu pazasi. Panyaya iyi, kana kutenderera iri kuresa, zvikuru rinodhura achava boka nokuda kugara kudiwa mamwe manyuko mari.

Ngaaverenge kutenderera remapazi ari zvebhizimisi zviri nyore. Zvinotevera parameters vari zvakakwana kuziva:

- ya pagadzirwe kutenderera;

- Kukura kwakaita receivables (MUNGUVA);

Verengai nguva kugadzirwa kutenderera uye kukura kwakaita kunzvimbo isingabvumirwi mauto, uye achava ya zvavakanga vachida kuita kuti uchishandisa yatinofema.

Kuti kuverenga pakunamata receivables, uwandu zvakafanira kwaari - pasina mberi kubhadhara - vakakamurwa kwemari (mambure). The zvichiguma Verengai anofanira kane mazuva 365.

Mamwe zvinogara

Upenyu - ari kutevedzana kwezviitiko zvokukura matanho kuburikidza iyo marudzi ose zvipenyu zviri nedanho ontogenesis.

Historical kutenderera - mumwe pedenderedzwa sayenzi wenhoroondo, kudzidza zviitiko zvekare; mamwe masayendisiti-kare vanodavira kuti zvinhu zvose zviri cyclic, saizvozvo munhoroondo kunogona kurondwa pakuvapo imwe zviitiko cyclical.

Kutenderera zvirongwa - chaiyo kutevedzana zvichipi- zviito. Ichi chikamu dzakananga chirongwa remitemo kuti anoita basa. Somuenzaniso, kunyora chirongwa kuverengwa kubva 1 kusvika 1000, kwaari vanofanira kunyora loop kuti zvichaita kudzokorora.

Kwemasvomhu - a namahwindo nzira pakati vertices ari girafu (akagadzirwa vertices uye mitsetse, izvo zvakabatanidzwa zvakazara kana chikamu), izvo chaizvoizvo nengetani.

Thermodynamic kutenderera - kutevedzana kwezviitiko thermodynamic urongwa, umo kupisa kutendeuka kunoitika basa (the Carnot kutenderera).

Kumwedzi - nguva apo dzokubereka nadzo dziri vakadzi ari kuchinja uye kugadzirira kuti zvinobvira pamuviri. Kudzokororwa pane zvikamu ane mwedzi.

Wevanotungamirira kutenderera - chirongwa kubereka ari kushanda (nemashoko zvoupfumi).

Music - dzakaunganidzwa akazvimiririra mabasa, vakabatanidzwa imwe pfungwa. Somuenzaniso, kutenderera "Mwaka", iro kunorondedzerwa Vanyori matatu - Antonio Vivaldi, Petrom Ilichom Chaykovskim uye Astor Piazzolla.

Ichitanga kare - asiwo muunganidzwa mabasa, vakabatanidzwa imwe pfungwa. Uyewo zvakanga inonzi "mabhuku" kutenderera.

Ichitanga muchina - nenguva kuburikidza iyo muchina inodzokorora chete oparesheni, kusanganisira nguva webetsero kushandiswa.

The womudenga kutenderera - imwe nguva apo mwedzi uchipfuura ose maitikiro ayo uye anodzoka Paunotanga ari "New Moon."