Hwokuberekwa

Population kukura munyika zvinogoneka zvose nokuvandudza wembereko uye vanofa uye nemhaka kutama kwendangariro. Zvapedzisira chinhu haingasviki kunzi. Pakati kwouwandu hwevanhu uye ayo kubereka pane kufanana uye kusiyana. Yokupedzisira ine pakuti vanhu vanogona kuramba vachikura, uye ayo kubereka nechekare atanga kutapudzwa, ndiEzekieri - yevagari anogona kuderera, uye kubereka kwayo panguva imwe chete - richikura.

Pari pakati mudzimba nyanzvi, demographers, nokushingaira akakurukura nyaya basa hunofa ibereke ari kubereka chavagari munyika. Ndeupi chinokonzera vaviri vakapiwa pamusoro, zviri kuzivikanwa? Chii zvikuru anosarudza replenishment uye kukura vokuparidzira? On dambudziko tinofanira kuteerera pakutanga - rakadzika yokuberekwa mwero uye hwakanyatsorwisa yakakwirira mwero wokufa kwevanhu?

Studies hwemazuva Russian masayendisiti-demographers zvinoratidza kuti basa nhasi, kunyange zvikuru yakakwirira, hunofa ari kuchinja kubereka achiri pasi. Chokwadi, munhu haagoni dzinorerutsa basa hondo vaine mwero hunofa munyika. Asi kukosha wevanotungamirira wavo muduku. Nhasi, chikuru chinhu chine rinonyatsooneka nezvainoita wevanotungamirira yemberi nyika yedu aberekwa unodiwa.

The dambudziko kuwedzera kuberekwa mwero munyika iwayo chakasimba. Mumwe kiyi zviratidzo zviri wevanotungamirira mamiriro - yose kubereka zvazvingava, kunorondedzerwa nhamba nhamba kuzvarwa mugore nokuwanda kwevanhu munguva iyoyo chiuru kwevanhu. Chii chinonzi mufananidzo uyu? Kuberekwa zvazvingava zvakakodzera kuti yakarurama tinyatsonzwisisa ari wevanotungamirira ezvinhu, achigadzirira vemo maberere uye nezvimwe. Vamwe zviratidzo izvi. Ichi boka rose, kwete munhu chinhu. Ichi boka rose zvinhu vakaongorora vari kunzwisisa.

The akavimbika kupfuura chokukomborerwa padanho wembereko ndiyo wembereko unodiwa. It kunoratidzwa avhareji nhamba yokubererwa por mukadzi paavhareji, upenyu hwake. Summary wembereko zvazvingava pebenzi kubereka havagoni kuva pasi 2.17. Kana 4.1 kana kupfuura, izvozvo - zvakakwirira, uye kana asingasviki 2.17 - pasi.

The wembereko mwero munyika vapiswa kubva 4.95 kuzvarwa muna 1950 kusvika 2,56 muna 2010. Mune dzimwe nyika dzakabudirira, ichi pamwero wokubereka akanga atova ari 60s. remakore rechi20, uye pakazopera remakore dzakawira kuna 1,57. Kunonyanyisa kubereka mwero Niger - 7,74, shoma iri Macau - 0,92.

Maererano Rosstat, muna 2009 reshiyo ichi munyika akaenzana 1.53. The ukoshi mumaguta nharaunda yaiva 1.41, apo mumaruwa - 1.9. Muna 2011, munyika yose yakanga akaenzana 1,61.

Kuberekwa mwero mumaruwa: Central - 1.41; Northwest - 1.41; South - 1,68; Volga - 1.50; Ural - 1,61; Siberian - 1,63; Kure - 1,57.

kubereka rate inogona rakakamurwa inokosha (vechirume), paruzhinji uye pasiri (tinofanira kugara, zera, etc.).

The inonyanya anonzi nevakawanda:

N = N / (T * P) * 1000

T - Makore (kumwedzi); P - Vagari kubudikidza pakati nguva (avhareji yegore negore population); N - nhamba yevana vanoberekwa.

Factor kunoenderana zvikuru wokubereka, unogona kupa kukanganisa dzemaitirwe.

zvazvingava Special:

F = N / (TW) * 1000.

Total coefficient chokuita nemashoko anokosha:

N = F * K,

kuna - the chikamu kwevakadzi makore 14-48 mutana yose vemo. marongero ichi yemakomo kubva 21 kusvika 31, saka Analytical kukosha chaiye coefficient pedyo nhamba. indekisi pamwero ichitovimbawo zera maumbirwo vakadzi makore 14-48 okuberekwa. Kuberekwa mwero makore 14 ari pedyo razero, kubva 21 kusvika 32 makore uye rinosvika vaifanira ukoshi zvakare anosvika razero kusvika 52 makore. zvazvingava Special rinowanikwa uye dzimwe nguva varume - (FM):

FM = N / (T * M) * 1000

kazhinji zvishoma kupfuura chaiyo, sezvo makore 14-51 ravakuru vane zvishoma duku pane vakadzi. Chinguva zera kwavari dzimwe nguva akatorwa 14-55 kana 14-58 makore. Muzviitiko zvakadaro, pamwero unokosha varume nevakadzi ndiyo ungaenzaniswa.