Tarisiro uye kutengeserana pamusoro Stock Exchange

MuMedhia akapiwa mari kuti kwakajairika playing mu nokukura akafanana chete ine zvibereko kwema musi Wall Street. Smart vanhu refu vakaziva kuti munhu haagoni tichivimba mhanza yako uye vakatanga kushandisa nhamba nzira kuwana kutsiga mari zvayo.

Casino anowana rakakura mari nokuti "Mukana" kana, mune mamwe mazwi, Nokutarira mutambo uri kurutivi yokubhejera imba. Uye pasinei mutambo kuitawo, pakupedzisira kuti playing muchawana. Casino mari kukura kunyange nokukurumidza, kana kuwanda mitambo ndivo avo kuti kuguma hwakanyatsorwisa nokukurumidza munguva - Roulette, Craps kana mamwe makadhi.

Ndinofunga chero muzvinashawo kubudirira mubasa zvakakodzera kugadzirisa vatatu zvinangwa inokosha:

1. Onai kuti uwandu vakabudirira kwema kuchakunda zvikanganiso haanzvengeki uye miscalculations.

2. Customize wako wokutengesera maitiro saka kuti mukana uwane serimwe pazvinobvira.

3. Kuti vawane kugadzikana nemigumisiro yakanaka remapazi ayo.

Uye pano isu kushanda vatengesi, rubatsiro zvakanaka kungava tarisiro. Izvi izwi iri mukana dzidziso mumwe kiyi. Inogona kushandiswa kupa neavhareji kufungidzira zvimwe chero ukoshi. The kwemasvomhu nokutarisira munhu anongoitika shanduka, kufanana centre regiravhiti, kana isu vanofunga zvose fungidziro zvinobvira Dots negurumwandira zvakasiyana.

Maererano zvokutengeserana nzira kuongorora kushanda kwayo dzinowanzotaura tariro vanobatsirwa (kana kurasikirwa). parameter Izvi akatsunga chitsama zvibereko Zvakawanwa Nokurasikirwa wainyatsotaura mumatunhu avo chiitiko fungidziro. Somuenzaniso, dzakabudirira zvokutengeserana nzira kunoratidza kuti 37% kubva kwema zvose achauyisa purofiti, uye vakasara - 63% - achava maturo. Panguva iyoyowo, avhareji mari rakabudirira kutengeserana ndiko $ 7, uye avhareji kurasikirwa akaenzana 1,4 emadhora. We ngaaverenge tarisiro wezvokutengeserana kwegadziriro kwakadaro:

MO = 7 X 0.37 + (0.63 X (-1,4)) = 2,59 - 0.882 = 1.708

Chii nhamba ichi? Rinoti, kutevedzera mitemo wegadziriro, paavhareji isu achagamuchira 1.708 emadhora kubva neimwe namahwindo mutengapwe.

Sezvo zvichiguma kunyatsoongorora kupfuura zero, hurongwa yakadaro inogona kushandiswa zvachose basa chairo. Kana mugumisiro pakuverenga netarisiro kugamuchira kunaka, zviri kare kutaura avhareji kurasikirwa uye zvokutengeserana kwakadaro kuchaita kukanganisika.

Huwandu kwemubairo paminiti kutengeserana zvinogona kutsanangurwa uye kuti hama ukoshi muchimiro%. Somuenzaniso:

• chikamu variritire 1 ngaakuitirei - 5%;
• chikamu vakabudirira zvokutengeserana kwacho - 62%;
• chikamu muzana kurasikirwa pa kutengeserana 1 - 3%;
• kuti chikamu kurasikirwa zvakaenda - 38%;

Panyaya iyi, kutarisira mari (5% X 62% - 3% X 38%) / 100 = (310% - 114%) / 100 = 1.96%. Ndiko, paavhareji kutengeserana kunounza 1,96%.

Zvinokwanisika kuva hurongwa kuti pasinei kuwanda kurasikirwa zvakaenda vachapa yakanaka mugumisiro, nekuti ayo MO> 0.

Zvisinei, mumwe zvinotarisirwa shoma. Zvakaoma kuita kana hurongwa anopa zviduku zvokutengeserana anonongedzera. Muchiitiko chino, zvingava richabereka akafanana kumahombekombe mubereko. Regai mumwe oparesheni inopa avhareji emadhora 0.5 chete, asi chii kana hurongwa kunoda 1000 akavhiyiwa pagore? Iyi haisi chaizvo mari iri pfupi nguva. It anotevera nenzira inonzwisisika kuti mumwe hunhu hwakanaka zvokutengeserana gadziriro anogona kunzi pfupi-rokuti Rakamira chinzvimbo.

Kana uchida zvakadzama nzwisiso samhu netsaona, ona chii Zvimiso tarisiro, chivimbo zvikamu , uye zvimwe zvinonakidza zvokushandisa, isu hunoratidza kuverenga bhuku "Statistics kuti Traders" (munyori S.Bulashev). Ndiani anoziva, zvichida motokari mhirizhonga mari pashure pokuverenga bhuku Achakuratidzai chete wakakwirira muchimiro muhurongwa ...