Kubereka vokuparidzira

The nhamba uye kubereka chavagari ndechimwe chikuru zviratidzi ari chechetere evanhu upenyu. Izvi Pfungwa dzinoratidza mwero yokuvandudzwa kwezvizvarwa vanhu. Kubereka chavagari inowanzopiwa aionekwa mubatanidzwa mhando nhatu hwevanhu kufamba: spatial, dzinongoitika uye magariro.

Kufunga kwacho dzakadai kuvandudzwa zvizvarwa, zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kukosha kwayo kukura kwenzanga. Maererano nevanyori vakawanda, kubereka chavagari chinhu yoga idenderedzwa evanhu chokwadi. Sezvo hwakanyatsorwisa akazvimiririra kwacho, pakuberekwa kutsva kumarudzi kunzwa vana zvikuru zvimwe mumagariro upenyu. Panguva iyo kubereka chavagari ane chinokosha kukanganisa zvimwe zvinhu zvoupenyu. Somugumisiro nekuita uku akaumba chinangwa zvinodiwa kuti pezvakaitwa zvose chokuita noupenyu hwevanhu.

vanogara kubereka kunoonekwa sechinhu probabilistic chinoshamisa. Anoumba munhu guru voga uye anongoitika tsaona - nzufu uye kuzvarwa. The mberi Kuvapo chavagari inopa nokuchengetedzwa dzinokosha ezvinhu pasi iyo kubata pamwe kwokunze kwezvakatipoteredza. Zvichibvira, maererano nenyanzvi, pane imwe murayiro, kwete randomness wevanotungamirira chokubuda. Izviwo, mugumisiro yaipfuurira wevanotungamirira hurongwa utariri pezvakaitwa. Ivo (pezvakaitwa) ndiwo maitiro nokuti dzinongoitika zvakatipoteredza. Pamusana kwavari kunokwanisika chichiitwa kuvandudzwa zvinomera nemhuka vanhu, uyewo hama kugadzikana kwevanhu.

Mushure chidzoke nzanga yevanhu iri utariri Nzira Qualitative zvachinja kubereka vemo. Kubvira musi chaivo kubereka kudzora zvigadziriswe vakanga yakatsiviwa pasocial. Paumbwe mudanga munzanga toreva kuchengetedza uye kugadzirwa upenyu hwevanhu vakakuvadza chidzoke wokuberekana sezvo pasocial determinacy kwacho. Chokwadi, izvi hazvirevi kuti akanyangarika zvakananga wevanotungamirira, utachiona chinangwa zvatisingakwanisi, maererano nako kwegadziriro mumagariro kuzvidzora resumption vanhu.

A quantitative mwero kubereka anosanganisa wokubereka mwero hurumende mumashoko runoenzanirana basa add (x) uye vanofa, zvinoratidzwa nokupukunyuka basa L (x). X mu mabasa aya - zera. A generalized mashoko akati anoitwa kwakakomba reshiyo (R) wokuberekana, uyewo upenyu anotarisirwa E0. Muchiitiko chino, mumwe anoitwa anobvumirwa, riri chokuita nokuti indices add (x) uye L (x) iri inonanga kunorondedzerwa uye R E0, sezvamakaropafadzwa hapana kudzokera-imwe tsamba.

Mode wokuberekana add (x) uye L (x) vari exogenous parameters. Izvi inofananidza zvakajeka vanoumba endogenous parameters C (x) (sechivako makore population) uye chiyero kuwedzera nhamba - mambure mwero R0 uye wechokwadi dzinongoitika kukura zvazvingava r. zviratidzi maviri izvi zvaizobatsira vamwe kuchinja pachinhu dzakasiyana nguva dzakabatana. Muchiitiko chokutanga, Rudzi urefu T, uye yechipiri - zvatinosiita nechiyero karenda nguva (kazhinji gore). Saka, mumwe reshiyo R = lnR0 / T.

Zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti Russia anozivikanwa anyatsoona kwemadzinza uye Regional kusiyana kubereka vemo.

Russia kubereka chavagari yechipiri yezana remakore rechi19 yakanga dzinoratidzwa yakakwirira pakuberekwa mwero uye vanofa. Mugore prewar nguva mbereko prices akatanga kuramba nokukurumidza dzakapfuma munharaunda.