Deterministic - a runotsanangurwa

Kuziva muganhu, handiti? Ivo emit chete chinonyanya kukosha, akagura zvakawanda. Shoko "kuona" rinobva Chirungu kusarudza - kusarudza. Runonzwika "simba" yenhengo zvakajeka. In mutauro wokuRussia, Rigidity ichi hakuna zvikuru, asi mumutauro wepakutanga ishoko kutsunga - chido chakasimba zvikuru kuita izvi kana kuti chiito, haachinji kutsunga. Deterministic - rinoreva nokuramba wakaomerera panzira kunorondedzerwa.

Sei furemu?

The chaizvo pfungwa yacho mumutauro wokuRussia kubva zvoupenyu kwemasvomhu mazwi. In dzezvoupfumi, yakawanda masvomhu, saka shoko rinogona kuwanikwa akakodzera mabhuku. Asingazivi zvakanga achawana vavhiringika havanzwisisi zvakakwana zvizhinji unyanzvi mabhuku.

Nokuti muduku masayendisiti shoko kunyanya rinoreva chikamu fanira kuitwa. Mumwe mabasa nesayenzi - kuderedza kusaziva zivo yevanhu munyika, saka, zvinobvira zvatisingakwanisi uye kutsunga. Zvinoguma aienda unonyatsoratidza - uye panguva goho tine pfungwa deterministic. Hakusi kuti mumwe, sezvo "vamwe."

Chii zvinodiwa?

Shoko iri harina kushandiswa pasina kutsunga anokonzera, kureva, mutungamiriri kana vakaomerwa pomutumwa. Somuenzaniso, mashoko deterministic zvikonzero - Zvinhu kukanganiswa. Kazhinji tsanangurai zvazvaiva. Deterministic zvechisimba - maitiro ichi kunokonzerwa uye kutambura kunokonzerwa kuunza simba. Iva nechokwadi kutsanangura chaizvo raiva triggering chinhu, kana mitauro chimiro zvisakakwana.

Black Swan uye Markets

In dzezvoupfumi, vanoti, kuti ichi kana kuti musika maitiro kwakakonzerwa nezviito siyana. Chii shamisa, dzakawanda mhedziso izvi vakaitwa pashure zvakanga zvose pamusoro, uye ipapo kureva shoko "vakatsunga".

dambudziko iri harisi chete upfumi, asi kunoratidzwa zvakajeka zvikuru. Niklas Nassim Taleb, imwe panguva muzivi simba uye shamwari yaDhavhidhi Cameron, anoti nemauto zvemari iri sei vanonzi "swans vatema" - zviitiko zvinobatanidza vanhu vazhinji, vane chikero nezvimwewo. Vazhinji mabhora oupenyu haritorwi streamline, uye naizvozvo haana kana kusiya vakachena masvomhu, shoko rokuti "tsunga"? Izvi kubvumira zvikuru yakarurama kushandisa shoko.

Sarudzai nzira yakarurama!

Funga muenzaniso kushandisa shoko. Tora "nzira deterministic." Mutsara uyu apere kana tinosvika kuna mhinduro zvinofanira kusarudzwa inobva ezvinhu dambudziko. Ndiko, nhamba kujekesa nzira. Somuenzaniso, kunzwisisa kwemasvomhu zvinetso zvikuru pamamiriro kusarudzwa kwacho, kanenge manually. "Kushopera" vachishandisa kombiyuta pane dzimwe nguva izvozvo kunganzi, asi muchiitiko chino tichiti tinosvika kuna deterministic unhu mabasa ayo, hatigoni kutora chero nzira, uye vawane mugumisiro.

Kunze sainzi - kashoma

Kwamuri pfungwa pakutsunga Zvinoodza mwoyo? Zvakanaka, rinoshandiswa nenzira yakamanikana zvikuru pfungwa, uye chete mumagadzirirwo sayenzi. Ndiko, hazvingaiti kuti iwe uchava asangane naye kazhinji - kana shoko kubva pakagadzirwa nematanda, zvino, nokuti chikanganiso vakabvumira musayendisiti pamwe uchipfuta maziso.

Asi pfungwa "deterministic" anobatsira kuderedza mhirizhonga mukuziva kwevanhu, kanenge zviri pamusoro ichi vanoti. Uye kana tiri kutaura chete pamusoro kwemasvomhu ruzivo yakatetepa, kuti kushandiswa kwayo vanonzi uye hunogutsa.

Shoko "akatsunga" kuti zvingabatsira vanyori mudzidzi muzvirongwa, kwete chete muminda sayenzi chaiwo. Pane pamuganhu nesayenzi umo pfungwa iyi ndiyo welcome - zvemutauro, mushonga. pano chete panguva mutambo zviri nani kwete kushandisa shoko - havanzwisisi. Kusara - Nobel kumafundo. Zvechokwadi ishoko vose vachakufarira.