Wevanotungamirira kuchembera vokuparidzira

In Nokuwanda kwakaita Soviet Union shoko "demography" uye "nhamba" kwenguva refu nguva kuonekwa sezvo anoreva zvakafanana. Zvichida ndokusaka anecdote pamusoro mhando nhatu nhema (nhema, zvakaipa nhema, uye nhamba) unogona kunzwa uye pamusoro wevanotungamirira zvidzidzo. Demography iri chaizvoizvo rinoshandurwa kubva muchiGiriki se "tsananguro vanhu", asi Latin shoko mamiriro (kubva pazviri achiumbwa neshoko nhamba.) - "mamiriro ezvinhu" Nyore kuona kuti mashoko zvachose siyana zvose zvinokosha uye mavambo. Chii anogona kuudza wevanotungamirira kudzidza?

Wevanotungamirira kuchembera nyika vemo

Practical demography inodzidza mamiriro ezvinhu munharaunda dzakasarudzwa, inoongorora dzinokura zvichiitika nezvemaitiro pose munhu anoti. Kudzidza pachena kuti akasiyana evanhu strata, mapoka zera. Zvichienderana zvokutsvakurudza zvabuda kuoneka mune ramangwana zviratidzi 1, 5, 10, dzimwe nguva kwemakore 50 pachine, achirondedzera zvichida kuitika zvinhu mune ramangwana.

Zvakafanotaurwa siyana masangano Statistical kutaura pamusoro inexorable ikure nhamba yevanhu vakura kupfuura makore 65 munyika yose. Chakanaka kana chakaipa - pane mafungiro akasiyana. Mukana yakadaro kwacho yakatanga pokuchinja "tsika upenyu uye kugadzirwa": kuwana dzidzo, hama kubudirira, kukura zvokurapa, kuvandudzika utsanana uye epidemiological mamiriro ezvinhu, nekubata mamiriro ari mafekitari. All pamusoro apa zvinoita kuti prolongation upenyu hwevanhu, izvo zvinozoita mumwe zvikuru zvikonzero zvokuwedzera kukwegura kuitika munyika.

Categories uye zviratidzo zviri wevanotungamirira zveBhaibheri

Zvinenge vose tsvakurudzo ndiyo padariro date muunganidzwa, tsananguro uye yokungotaura kududzirwa nemigumisiro. Havasi Kunze uye wevanotungamirira zvidzidzo. Kwainyanya kubva mashoko ndiwo vaverengwe, zvisinei, dzinoitirwa uye Micro-mharidzo kuongorora uye kusimbisa vamwe munzanga, zveupfumi uye enyika zvinoita kufurira ezvinhu munharaunda. Nokuda kwaizvozvi, kuti zvidzidzo zvinorondedzerwa vemo uye ayo mamiriro: zera, pabonde, nyika, chitendero uye mutauro, Occupational uye dzidzo. Pfungwa inobhadharwa dzinongoitika kwouwandu hwevanhu uye kutama, padanho mari zvimwe mapoka uye vanhu. Rondedzero All vakatakudzwa kubva nechinangwa pave yakarurama, kufungisisa soro nhamba achifurira zvikonzero, dzidziso pamusoro izvo, mune ramangwana, akaisa mberi pave hypotheses uye paumbwe kwenzanga.

Demographics somunhu sayenzi conventionally akakamurwa chakarongwa, Analytical, munhoroondo, Sociological, zvechiuto.

• Formal demography rave kuongorora mashoko quantitative chezvinonhuwira pezvakaitwa zvose nezvazvinoreva nokuwedzera kana kuderera mune vemo.
• Analytical - kuongorora ukama uye mifananidzo simba, chikonzero uye kushanda muna chesamende ezvinhu munzanga. Vaidzidza nenhanho kwemasvomhu nzira, uyewo tichibatsirwa Modelling uye kufungidzira. Analytical demography anoongorora matambudziko socio-zvoupfumi, zvematongerwo enyika uye zvetsika okunze munzvimbo zvakasiyana zera zvikamu vemo. Hazvishamisi, kuti chidzoke of kuchembera nevanhu panyaya magetsi socio-ezvoupfumi mamiriro ezvinhu, demographers vanoti haisi gumi nevaviri makore okutanga.
• Historical demography retrospective zveBhaibheri munzanga uye zvimwe zviitiko chokuita nokuparara vemo munzvimbo kudzidza. Pachishandiswa anounganidzwa uye kupatsanurwa kutsvakurudza kuti (emakore) yakati rebei, akaisa mberi yokungotaura kunanga uye kuronga yakasimbiswa nhoroondo mapatani. Pamusana kwavari, uye zvakakwanisika afanotaura kukwegura kwevanhu munyika.
• The yakawiriranwa simba demography uye evanhu inodzidza magariro demography. Kubva yapfuura chimiro yakasiyana yokudzidza mananara panguva micro pamwero (mhuri, hama dzepedyo, kuzivikanwa). Rinoongorora munzanga demography evanhu mafungiro, dzemunharaunda, maitiro inokanganisa pakutsvakurudza nzira: kubvunzurudza, miedzo, kuongorora uye zvichingodaro ..
• Military Demographics inodzidza siyana zvinoita kuti itibatsire mamiriro zvehondo uye upfumi. Nokuti chikamu ichi zvinoreva kuongorora mikana vanounganidzira vokuparidzira mukurwisana zvombo, zvingangove vanhuwo zvavo sezvo zvibairo uye kutama, zvinokonzerwa ruvengo mudunhu. Ichi chikamu demography hunonyatsobatana nesayenzi nemauto.

Population, kubereka uye dzokubereka nadzo - huru Mapato kudzidza kuburikidza nesayenzi pane mubvunzo. Musoro kuchembera chavagari zvinovhiringidzika chokuita kudzidza bonde uye zera Kuronga yevagari mudunhu. Fungidziro rakakamurwa kuva mhando nhatu: chinyakare, mira uye regressive (anenge kumbobvira kuitika wakachena chimiro).

• Wokutanga mhando kunoratidzwa mukuru pakuzvarwa uye rufu prices. Inogona kuonekwa madzinza Africa, uko vana havafaniri kunyoresa kusvikira kusvika makore gumi (nokuda mukuru mucheche mwero wokufa kwevanhu).
• Wechipiri mhando, kusiyana wokutanga akaona pasi nembereko uye vanofa. Izvi zvinogona kuonekwa dzakabudirira, uye nyanzvi dzinofungidzira kuti post-maindasitiri munzanga.
• Chechitatu, regressive mhando kunoratidzwa yakakwirira hunofa yakaderera nokuberekwa mwero (kuchengetwa panguva akavhiyiwa zvechiuto munyika).

Term wevanotungamirira kukwegura ichaongororwa somunhu reshiyo mapoka matatu zera vagere nharaunda: munhu pasi pemakore 15 okuberekwa anobatwa zera vemo, vanhu pashure pemakore 60-65. The predominance neyokupedzisira boka pamusoro rokutanga 10-15% uye anonzi wevanotungamirira kukwegura kwevanhu. Nemuromo, muenzaniso waJehovha Zvakanyanya Kunaka Panguva Yepamuviri Kuronga vemo apo vechiduku vakaremara vanhu 20%, vashandi - 65%, vakaremara vanhu vari pamudyandigere makore 15%. zano iri vaiona yakanaka maererano riparadzirwe zvoupfumi mutoro nokushanda hwevanhu (kwakavakirwa 1000 500 vashandi vakaremara). Naizvozvo, dzimwe ratios kazhinji sechinoitika pakusika ane kunyanya mutoro, zvichiita kuti kuparara upfumi.

Mamiriro Akaita wevanotungamirira ezvinhu Europe

Kuchembera Vagari dzakabudirira dziri okupedzisira makumi mashanu apfuura. Impact pamusoro kuitika uyu zvinhu zvizhinji:

• kuvandudza kutarisirwa utano;
• kuwedzera upenyu anotarisirwa;
• nokuberekwa zvazvingava;
• zvoupfumi uye socio-enyika mamiriro ezvinhu munyika.

A mamiriro ezvinhu akanaka nokuda chidzoke kunzi sirivha upfumi. Chaizvoizvo racho zvinodiwa nevanhu vakwegura vari mabasa, zvinhu uye kuramba mararamiro kuburikidza marongerwo zvigadziriswe hupfumi womuenzaniso. Mumwe zvinoumba iri Silver upfumi iri, kunyanya usanganidzo - shoko anowanzoshandiswa achangodarika makore pambiru, asi tsitsi abvarura kubva akapoteredza uye kushandurirwa yakasiyana zvachose chikamu vemo.

Munyika European vanoshandisa nzira dzakasiyana uye nzira kuderedza mudyandigere Fund:

• Sezvingatarisirwa kuti wakamutswa mudyandigere zera (kuunza mudyandigere zera makore 70 zviri kurongwa mune ramangwana);
• dzakawanda rinoti pasi nokuongorora shoma urefu basa uye risingamboshandisi uwandu zvipo rwakabhadharwa kuna mudyandigere Fund;
• kubvisa mutoro pamusoro mudyandigere mari inoti vari kuedza uchibatsirwa private mari deposits nokuda pensioners kuti asunungurwa kukwira nevamwe vanofungidzira kusvika 2% kubva GDP (parizvino European inoti vanopedza anenge 15% GDP kutsigira mudyandigere mari);
• akatanga purogiramu "vanoshingaira kukwegura" munzvimbo dzakasiyana, izvo ndehwokuti kubatsira vanhu kuti agare navo nguva refu ari basa pamusika uye gare gare mudyandigere;
• Dzimwe nyika dziri kuedza chikamu-nguva pensioners, vanhu vanoshanda kuchinja maawa uye kugamuchira haasaruri muhoro pamwe - mudyandigere (musarudzo anoratidza kuti nzira iyi basa anokwezva kune 68% yevanhu vakwegura muEurope).

Zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti kwehurongwa basa kwevanhu kukwegura zvinofarirwa vakwegura uye rakatangwa muna zvinenge zvose kumatunhu Europe. The chikuru dambudziko kunyika kweeuro mapazi haasi kuchembera uye kuderera nokuberekwa mwero kuti chinotsigirwa mabasa akadai pabonde dzidzo kubva kukireshi zera, rutsigiro uye kusimudzira ungochani, yakakurumbira muuzivi "Child-vakasununguka" uye zvichingodaro. D. Zvisinei, vose pamusoro harioneki sezvo matambudziko mananara pamwe runoenzanirana nemigumisiro.

The wevanotungamirira emuchina muRussia

In Russia kufanotaura kuchembera nevanhu achishandisa 2020, asi, kuti zuva, novimba nhamba akagwinya vagari uye vanhu kupfuura netariro (pasi pemakore 15 okuberekwa - 15.2%, kusvika makore 65 - 71,8%, pashure 65 - 13%). Yambira chiratidzo inogona wepagore kuderera wembereko uye yakakwirira mwero wokufa kwevanhu (ari inorwara kubva vachangoberekwa). Natural kwouwandu hwevanhu haasi wokutanga gore anoramba kunaka. Kuchembera vokuparidzira kuRussia, tinogona kutaura vachiri danho, asi nokukurumidza uyu muitiro kutarisira munhu pasi mukana.

The wevanotungamirira ezvinhu South-East Asia

Pakazosvika 2030, zvakanga projected mumwe achikwakuka hombe iri kuchembera Vagari kunyika kuSoutheast Asia. Kunyange nhasi, ari muchanza Statistical pakafunuka ndekwaJehovha Japan. Long-refu, China wokuti "mhuri imwe - mwana mumwe", uyewo inobata haana nzira yakanakisisa zera uye vakadzi Zvinoumba rwacho. The easing kuchangobva mumhuri gwara China haazorambi nokukurumidza kupa muchero. To musi, pane kusaenzana simba kwenhamba yevarume nevakadzi (nenzira kuwedzera nhamba yevanhu). Izvi pashure mutemo pasina mudyandigere mamiriro ehurumende (kuitira kukwegura vabereki vaiva mwanakomana, izvo zvakaita kuti vakawanda pamuviri zvakadyiwa, kana vabereki vanoziva bonde mwana (musikana)).

Igaroziva kuchinja kwezvematongerwo enyika uye zvoupfumi munyika wevanotungamirira ezvinhu munharaunda

Yekunwa mienzaniso muenzaniso wakajeka wezvinotaurwa matambudziko enyika, zvoupfumi uye miganhu mamiriro ezvinhu ari wevanotungamirira Kuronga yevagari mudunhu. Zvokuimba containment zvokuwedzera kwevanhu, sezvinoratidzwa Chinese tsika haakwanisi yokutungamirira vanhu kuti kubudirira uye yezwi post-maindasitiri munzanga, asi zvinetso vane mhinduro aigona kutora chimwe gumi, uye zvimwe zvinoda zvikuru matanho. Panguva iyoyowo, iyo "munzanga rezinesi" dzakabudirira European kutungamirira hurumende kuti chete dhinomineta, pamwe musiyano kuti "muduku wekare" kondinendi European rusununguko pakusarudza gwara roupenyu.

Climate kuchinja Zvinoumba chavagari, dzinongoitika uye nevanhu njodzi, zvoutano

Tikafunga vanachiremba indasitiri, Zvakawanikwa esayenzi kuchembera vanogara munyika dzakasimukira haruzvitsvakiri somunhu dzinouraya chakaita pokuwa upfumi. Zvisinei, kugadzirisa avo nguva dzose chinoitwa "zviitiko kuzvironga" akadai okunze shanduko, dzinongoitika uye dzinokonzerwa nevanhu njodzi.

Kana tikafunga njodzi nevanhu, kazhinji inotungamirira kwavari mamiriro shanduko uye dzinongoitika dzoga (madutu, washington, mafashamo, moto, pokupisa, uye zvichingodaro. D.). Zvisinei, "chinhu kwevanhu" ndiyo kutungamirira. Sezvo muenzaniso njodzi nomunhu kunokonzerwa nenjodzi dzinongoitika dzoga kunogona kukonzera tsaona pamusoro renyukireya nesimba chirimwa Fukushima-1, imwe budiriro Bantyao dhamu 1975 (China). The tsaona kwakaitwa vazhinji vepasi pamusoro Deepwater Horizon (Gulf of Mexico), kuchikuva (kunyange vamwe inokosha chinhu aiva munhu kana echisikigo, hazvina sokuti kuziva nhasi zvichibvira).

njodzi All "unganidza" zvirimwa maviri nokukurumidza uye kwenguva refu. Instant inoratidzwa zvoupfumi nezvinhu, njodzi vawirwa, asi kwenguva refu (dzimwe nguva kupfuura pakarepo) runoratidzwa mumagakava, zvoupfumi, zvematongerwo enyika (kunyange zvechitendero) zvaunofarira munzanga. Colorful kusimbisa mashoko aya anogona kushanda migumisiro Hurricane Katrina, kwenguva refu "mutero" izvo kuchiri kuenderera.

Kutama urongwa Europe

Ongororo dzakawanda dzinoratidza kuti kuchembera ndimo chiratidzo pakati zvinakire wehurumende, uye kuderera wokubereka iri zvinosiyana kuwedzera upenyu anotarisirwa uye nheyo kwokugamuchirwa. Zvisinei, pasinei izvi chaitika, Europe aigara inogadziridza yevagari tichiregeredza vashandi. Kutama policies vanofanira kubatwa uye kuzvidzora mufambiro, zvisina rokupedzisira chinozunguzirwa "nechisimba vatorwa" munyika EU wacho. VokuEurope kushandisa muhombe womuenzaniso, unosanganisira kudzoka vanotama kumusha kwavo kana kuti kusvika mudyandigere zera. Recent zviitiko zvinoratidza kuti hazvibviri kuitwa kuuya vakawanda, uye chete chokuzvidira kudzokera nezviso zvavo sezvisingaiti.

Kutama wokuti yaimbova Soviet Union

Yaimbova Soviet Union, zvose anotarira zvishoma yakasiyana. Andamento ari kugadzira anonzi basa kutama (basa majana pamwe pasina mushandi munharaunda imba 10-11 months). Kutaura zvazviri, vashandi vanouya kumba sezvinoita yokuzororera. Kusuduruka anotora nzvimbo kunyanya mumaguta vanhu vanopfuura miriyoni imwe, pakuvaka site, mafekitari, migodhi zvingangoita kwemahofisi pedyo kunzvimbo yavo basa. Musiyano uyu yokutama wokuti yeEuropean pakuti anoshumira kukwezva zvikuru vanokwanisa nenyanzvi (sezvo iri US) uye nhengo basa simba. Nyika Post-Soviet nokuda zveupfumi uye enyika ezvinhu havaoni kudikanwa yakaderera-unyanzvi vashandi kukokwa uye kungoti paanofa, kunyanya sezvo kwemabasa zvakanakira mune dzimwe nzvimbo iri haawanzotauri $ 20 pamwedzi.

China kwakaita kutama maitiro

China nenguva yatinoona kuti akudziridze nharaunda, zvakazoita kuti risi nyika pedyo inoti. Hurumende iri kukurudzira vanhu kuti tama kune dzimwe nyika, uye michato nevamiririri dzimwe nyika, nokuti nhamba yevakadzi muRepublic iri ndoda ngakuite vemo. Zviri pachena kuti yokutama kwakadaro hazvirevi kudzokera China pazera makore 65. Chinese nyaya munyika kure, aparadzane, maererano nemirayiro dzavo, izvo chinoita kuti tigumise pamusoro kusada kubvuma nemagariro echinyakare kunyika dzavanogara, uyewo yakarongeka kuwedzera, zvakaipira izvo zvingava kupfuura European vaitamira dambudziko.

Variants aripo wevanotungamirira mamiriro ezvinhu kukura

Kutaura zvazviri, kukwegura kwevanhu pamusoro pakanyorwa mudanga yokuberekwa mwero (mwero vana 2 chete mukadzi), zvichiratidza nokuwedzera nemararamiro ayo kunyaradzwa, zvinogona kunzi, iri nani oneka. Inogona vaitirei kuitika ngozi apo kuberekwa mwero iri kuwedzera ose gore, asi vagari iri kudzikira panguva imwecheteyo panguva pamwero chete. Variants pakati paumbwe wevanotungamirira ezvinhu, kune vazhinji, ivo vakasiyana chete ari zvinoverengeka kufungwa mu drafting pavo. Zvisinei, chimwe chinhu ndechechokwadi - vanhu wenyika achafanira afungezve mafungiro avo nokusingaperi kwevanhu nguva iri penguva 64-100 makore uye kudzidza kugamuchira "zvipo zvokunamata" uye ruzivo.