Zvokuita rubles? nhasi chii chokuita Ruble? Ruble inowira - zvokuita?

Musoro kuwa Ruble mumakore achangodarika kazhinji rinobuda pachaunga. Publications vakasiyana runobva muFirisitia ( "Chii chokuita rubles?"), To ane zvakakwana kwazvo uye Analytical. Nyaya izvi zvichiitirwa kupa hurongwa muunganidzwa panhau, yakavakirwa mabhuku zvinowanikwa mune Russian wokudhinda.

The Russian Ruble imhaka nzira

Analytics - dzimwe nguva gangaidzo chinhu. Ready kupindura mubvunzo uyu evasingatombonamati Russian, takatarisana nechisarudzo chiedza wakafanira payo, vachiridza mumuromo ... dzezvematongerwo Western Chris Weafer. In maonero ake, kushaya STRUCTURAL kuchinja Russian zvoupfumi yave yakura uye vatora chimiro zvokuti 2014 kunofanira ezvidzidzo kwavari kusarudza: kana zvichaitika panguva ino, kana hazvina kuitika panguva dzose (nokuti pfungwa: muna 2016 - reparamende sarudzo muna 2018 - musarudzo).

Panguva iyoyowo, sezvo masayendisiti vanoti, zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti zvokuchinja kuchaguma chete mumakore 2-3.

Zviri kuchinja kubva yechinyakare injini zvoupfumi kukura - chaizvo zvekuvaka-inobva upfumi - vangasimudzira itsva injini zvoupfumi kukura. Mumwe zvishandiso reorientation ichi ndicho Ruble. Ndinofanira kuitei nazvo? mubvunzo uyu ane mhinduro maviri dzimwe.

1. Chinzvimbo vatsigiri neoliberalism (anomirirwa neSangano Central Bank, shumiro, oligarchy) ipfupi kuti kwenguva refu zvinhu uye, naizvozvovo, - kushanda ari Ruble mu "vakasununguka akayangarara".

2. vaiomerera anomiririra kuchengeteka mauto, muboka revatungamiriri, zvinodzinetsa mamiriro, vanowanzoona tunodzivisa zvakasimba shanduko.

Shoko kiyi kutanga kuchinja kwaiva kucherechedza uye avo uye vamwe kuti vagere asina zvaaiita pamusoro ngozi pane pedutu. Kuumba Russian mubhizimisi zvinhu zvinodiwa maviri ezvinhu: mitengo mukuru mafuta uye kokupata Ruble. Saka, ini akapiwa murayiro: "! Forward"

Nezvekutanga Pedhi Russian upfumi

Zvamazvirokwazvo, macroeconomic mamiriro ezvinhu munyika Zvaifungidzirwa pakutanga. Development hwenyika vakabatsira makore gumi kutsiga Ruble. pamusika wemari reRussia rifadze oga makambani. Vakaunganidza anoyevedza dzomunyika reserves - $ 500 billion.

Russian Ruble mune remangwana integrative nerevane - imwe chete mari yose nyika yose Customs Union.

Central Bank Ruble maitiro

Shoko chikuru hurukuro yedu inofanira kuva mutemo pakati Central Bank - hurumende muviri kuronga riparadzirwe uye kukanganisa nzira National uye dzimwe mari. kakawanda musoro mukuru eRwizi Russia Elvira Nabiullina vataura yayo huru.

Vakatsvaka kuburikidza pamutemo chiratidzo basa reRussia National mari sezvo akayangarara, musaenzaniswa dzakabatanidzwa administratively kusvikira kukosha dhora uye euro. On wokuti: "Chii chokuita rubles," musoro Central Bank anopindura kuti anotevera, kushandisa isingadhuri mari, kusimbisa upfumi, uye kuti, zvichaita kusimbisa Ruble.

The itsva Gengi nomutemo wemadzimambo Central Bank

Pane maonero matsva parwendo National mari vakapa "chikuru mirayiridzo usapinde mutemo kubva 2014 kusvika 2016.". Gwaro iri akaratidza nokudzorwa Bank of Russia gwara kubva kukanganiswa ari Ruble Gengi kuti mitengo kukanganiswa. Zvinonzi kurongwa muna 2015 kutamira zvakazara zvinoyangarara mashandiro kuti mitemo yacho National mari. Nokuita chirongwa ichangobva kutaurwa, muna January 1914 Central Bank yamira dzimwe Exchange kupindira kuramba Gengi ukuwo, ari Ruble rinokundwa. Zvakadini kana zvoupfumi zviratidzi kweeuro nzvimbo munyika panguva imwe chete vanoratidza zvakanaka muitiro? Russia zvinofanira kuchengetedzwa kwayo nzira.

The yepamutemo maonero: zvikonzero kuderera of Ruble

akawira Ruble nyaya musoro Bank of Russia anodana chinangwa vanoongorora: haasi Ruble akawa, uye akasimbisa dhora uye euro. Sezvaunoziva, kutanga kwacho akateya rutapudzo kutenga yesangano iri Federal Reserve System of United States maererano pfungwa "quantitative easing" - kusvika pamabhiriyoni 65 emadhora pamwedzi ..

Kubvira pakupera 2012 pakupedzisira akagadzira ari redistribution pose pakukura nzvimbo. The chikuru michina zvoupfumi kukura vaiva United States uye Europe. The Russian upfumi, uyewo Asian nyika muna 2013 yakaratidza kurega kunotanga yokuda. Mumashoko ari pamashure pacho rikawira uye slowdown of China.

Elvira Nabiullina, kiyi raivapo kukura National mari aona mutange kukura kwoupfumi. Rinotaura nouchapupu zvoupfumi zvireruke kugadzirisa dambudziko: yacho predominance wokuRussia kunze kwenyika pamusoro kupinzwa ayo. Hurumende anosarudza kuita sei rubles, muna Chinyorwa rudzi, chinangwa dzinoongorora mamiriro ezvinhu.

Munguva pfupi iri kuitika kuchaita kuona profitability kukura exporters ose mbishi zvinhu. Asi kwenguva yacho Ruble vanofanira 'kusendama "pamusoro upfumi basa vamwe, non-chikuru sectors yeRussian upfumi.

Maererano vokubhengi Russian (Anton Mukhin, finsovetnik Irkutsk Bazi BCS Premier Irkutsk) kushanda vomanikidza Ruble iri dzokufungidzira. kukura kwayo kwenguva refu kunofanira kupa nemaonero akanaka kuti aina mafuta uye "reserves nokuda anofambisa" yacho Central Bank. Bhenga chokwadi: mamiriro mari nzira envisaged sechinhu imwe Danho kuti Ruble akawa. Zvokuita - tichazoona pazuva rakatevera matanho ari Central Bank.

The kwenguva depreciation pamusoro yasimbiswa zvidzidzo vakaperekedza America_Merrill_Lynch bhengi vaongorori avo macroeconomic Modelling kwatemwa kuti rechipiri uye chechina chikamu gore rino, Russian mafuta mutengo ichamuka.

The Ruble uye vatambi vane musika wokuRussia

Panguva iyoyowo, musoro Central Bank rinokoka vatambi vose vari pamusika wokuRussia pamwe chete uye comprehensively vazoita dambudziko kuwa Ruble. Akayeuka kuti Central Bank - handiyo chete nyaya iri vatorwa Exchange pamusika. Its basa - kukwanisa kuongorora uye kubata pfupi nokufamba National mari, nokudaro tichiramba yakatsiga ezvinhu zvebhizimisi.

Kwenguva zvinoitwa kuderera kukosha kwayo, sezvinoratidzwa nemashoko Elvira Nabiullina, inobatanidzwa ane STRUCTURAL kukanganisa aina vaifarira mbishi zvinhu upfumi. Kuti ndiyo mhinduro dambudziko nguva :. "Chii chokuita Ruble" rine chokuita yakakura STRUCTURAL reboot yose upfumi iri kunzwisisa.

About mabhizimisi zano uye nemhuri ine kuwa Ruble

Zviri pachena kuti simba Ruble ane mhikuriso simba nokuda nyika ekisipoti vaifarira, chinangwa chacho - kutsigira mugadziri waro. Saka anoti Evgeny Bolotin, sachigaro Urals Bank Union. Iye anotenda kuti chisarudzo chine nzira nzira (kugadziridzwa / haina) zviri pachena: vanoda kukura bhizimisi uye kubhadhara mitero, vachifambidzana kudzorwa kuwa Ruble. Zvakadini kana panguva iyoyowo vachiva kupinzwa anodhura? Tsiva Russian kugadzirwa kwayo.

Zvino panzvimbo Entrepreneurs ari kuchengetedzeka pamusika. Kudivi rimwe, sezvo pfungwa ne Radik Akhmetshin, Director pamusoro Stock Market Association Urals mabhizimisi kuwana mukana nheyo kukura kwayo ramangwana vatenge anogoverana pa pakugumburwa mitengo. Zvechokwadi, mukufamba ramangwana ravo achazvikomborera kukura. Munguva ichangopfuura, anoti uye Russian rezvemari Anton Siluanov. Zvisinei, nezvoupfumi reRussia kutungamirira vaitarisira zvachose kuderedza National mari muna 2014 kusvika 20%.

Ukuwo, kuwira Ruble kufurirwa pamusika wemari kweRussia Chokwadi - nemashoko chete. Chaizvoizvo, zvisinei, nokuti vazhinji vatambi vake - vasiri vagari, hunde mitengo kuwa nyaya, vanoita vatorwa dzakamanikidzwa "tora pamusoro".

Ruble inowira - zvokuita? 2014, chaizvoizvo

wokuRussia nevanhu vari kuwa Ruble sei? mubvunzo uyu akadzidza Vladimir Zotov (Directorate of zenze / masangano uye mari kumahombekombe Ural). Maererano bhenga, zvakajeka vakawedzera kudiwa mari, panguva imwe chete akatora diki chikamu dhipoziti. Against ichi kumashure, pane tsika haana kuchinjwa Ruble deposits mune madhora kana evrovye. Sezvo mufananidzo pamusoro apa, iye vakataura zvinotevera nhamba: kana Russian Ruble deposits vokuparidzira anenge 16.3 tiririyoni. rubles, currency, rakashandurwa panguva Gengi of Central Bank mu rubles, -. tiririyoni chete 3,3. kuzora., kana 20%.

Zvisinei, vokuRussia dzakaona uye akapukunyuka anopfuura dambudziko, vachiri kubvunza mubvunzo: "The Ruble Falls - zvokuita?" Mhinduro chinyakare: vanofanira Siyanisai mari dzavo. Hazvina musoro, somuenzaniso, zvinotevera nzira: hafu mari kupfeka Ruble dhipoziti ari, mumwe dzasara kumativi - mu dhora mubhangi, uye zvasara - iri evrovy.

Nzvimbo avhareji mugari

Bvumiranai, kare nhasi zvinoita "Matambudziko" musoro vomunyika kugara Mota kwose kuti aite zvakafanana imupota kutenga, izvo vaigona kuita Russia, asi prix. Ivo, munoziva, ndokuwira vanotenga simba kana rokutendeutsa rubles.

Vagari vakawanda mamiriro edu, mukusiyana wokutanga, kushaya mari kuchengeteka pamutsago. Kwavari akakodzera nderimwe dambudziko - chii chokuita Ruble nhasi? In Zvinotaurwa, mari zvinosvika 30 zviuru. Kwiza nechekuzasi. unogona kuchengeta mari kumba.

Zvino funga mamiriro ezvinhu apo mari iripo kubva vagari zvichiri kuwanika. Bvisai zvavo Ruble deposits kubva kubhengi hakufaniri kuva. Pasi Pakuurayiwa dhipoziti chibvumirano, kugumisa izvozvo mberi nguva, kubhangi yeGmail.END_STRONG asingadi kuwana mubereko. Izvi zvichaita chete kuwedzera nayo nemaoko avo pachavo pakukuvadza kwavo.

Kana ndichida kutenga kupinza motokari kwamuri mubvunzo kunyanya kukosha: "Chii chokuita Ruble nhasi" mhinduro yomubvunzo uyu pfupi: "Tenga!" Chokwadi, mberi kuwa National mari achasarudza kuwedzera mari kurota kwenyu.

Varumbidzwa - kwete inokurudzirwa

Kana iwe vainyora zano nyanzvi kuti vagari vemo, kufungisisa pane kuumba vega ukomba hwakanga huchiipoteredza yakachengeteka kuwa National mari, ipapo zvose uchaderedzwa maviri zvinhu nyore chaizvo.

Chokutanga haina akakurudzira vanopedzisira illiquid mari. Somuenzaniso, mari Real Estate zvinogoneka chete panguva zvikamu zvikuru nguva. Uyezve, pamwe mitengo, pfungwa, haisi yakarumbidza kutengesa pfuma. In dambudziko, simba rinomutsa mari inoda maloprognozirovana.

Asi, chii chokuita kuderedza pamusoro Ruble? Chechipiri nzvimbo rinoratidza kuti zvavakabvumirana nzvimbo mari mari vemo vari emura zvinhu: bhengi deposits, nesimbi dzinokosha, PIF-s nokuda inivhesitimendi makambani.

Uye sei pasina kare chinyakare zvakanaka zano akare emakore-kare: Vagari vachadzidza kuponesa, kumbomira pamwedzi wegumi zvakaoma zvavo zuva kuchinaya!

Vamwe ezvinhu Ruble kuwa

Anecdotally, ona "bedstvovaniya pamusoro kamera" Makambani mafuta yeRussia, loudest kuchema: "Rubatsiro! Pokuwa Ruble! Zvokuita? !! "Shure zvishoma kudzidza zvoupfumi vanhu aiziva chokwadi kuti pamwe kuwedzera mutengo mafuta uye kuwira dhora" mbishi-zvinhu "vanowira Nirvana, nekuti yavanotambira rinowanikwa mune dzimwe mari, uye mari (mu Vol. H. And nemitero ) - iri rubles. Kuenda reconversion: kuwa Ruble anova Mari oligarchs.

Pakati neproigravshih zvirokwazvo "Surgutneftegaz" - yakadzika-zvokutenga yakarongeka, rine anoyevedza chaiko mari nzvimbo . $ 30 billion Cherechedza kuti zvinobatsira, asi duku, ndiye "Lukoil" uye "Rosneft". Havazonyadziswi kukwanisa kuita maximize mari nokuti vane pfupi yokumwe mari payables (mari nokuda kwayo mutsividzo achafanira kutenga pamusoro mitengo mwero). A vaitungamirira ekisipota kuti "Gazprom" chinowanzoitika kuwana super-mari kubva "enyika" kuwedzera Zimbabwe tariffs.

Kumutungamiriri Analytical risingaoneki "Alpari" Alexander Razuvaev anofembera kuti somugumisiro ichi kuitika mutero forogo pakati mutengo mafuta (gasi) uye mitero mune rubles huru mari mafuta uye gasi kunzwisisa achava mabhiriyoni 862. Kuzora. zvimwe kwemari mabhiriyoni 682. varikwizire. Muchidimbu, kana Ruble devalued, zvokuita, ziva mafuta zvakanakisisa.

mhedziso

Saka, simba Ruble - haisi zvokuti chiratidzo dambudziko, sezvo imwe mari Chinoshandiswa kukura. Zvinokurudzira paumbwe imwe mari "kuchengeteka chairarirwa" nokuti zvakafanira STRUCTURAL zvachinja upfumi.

Zvinoreva kuti dzomunyika mubhizimisi zvinhu Russia zvakananga akaita zvinoenderana kana zvichiita kuti vatendeukire "vatora kubva mudumbu" oligarchs zvakawandisa mari yakawanikwa painova Ruble. The nyika inoda maindasitiri mutemo, mamiriro-run, zvakanangwa upfumi kwezvirongwa makambani uye hurumende, iyo nzira itsva kuvandudzika indasitiri yenyukireya, mafuta uye gasi, kudzivirira indasitiri.