MUENZANISO Statistical rucherechedzo. Statistical zvichiongororwa sangano

Munharaunda yemazuva ano, hutungamiri hwehupfumi hwaizove husingabviri pasina senzi yakakosha yakadai sekuverengwa. Ichi chirango kwemazana emakore akawanda chakaita basa rekudiwa uye rinobudirira mune chero nyika. Uye uwandu uye danho rekutsvaga kwehupfumi munyika yacho hazvina basa.

Dhaka idzodzo dzinounganidzwa nehuwandu, uye kusvikira nhasi dzinoshandiswa zvikuru nehurumende, sezvo dzinongedzera kuwandu hwemazana ezvakaitika zviripo munzanga.

Tsanangudzo yezwi

Izwi rokuti "zvinyorwa" rinotaridzika uye rine zvakawanda. Kusvika iye zvino, kune zvuru zvinotsanangurwa zvakasiyana zvezwi iri. Haisi mafilosofi chete, asiwo economists, mashematicians, vatongi vezvematongerwo enyika uye vezvemagariro evanhu vakaedza kutsanangura senzi yakadaro sematareji.

Iro shoko iro rinoreva chirevo ichi rakabva muchiLatin "chimiro". Mukushandura, zvinoreva "imwe nzvimbo yezvinhu." Zvisinei, nanhasi shoko rokuti "matanho" rinogona kushandiswa mumhando dzakasiyana-siyana. Izvi ndezvi:

- Mabasa anobatsira kuunganidza, kupfuurira mberi nekuongorora tsanangudzo dzinoenderana netsika uye mari, huwandu uye dzidzo, pamwe chete nezvimwe zviitiko zvakawanda zvehupenyu hwevanhu;

- chirango chedzidzo chaisanganisira mune zvirongwa zvekudzidzisa vatungamiri, vatengesi uye mari yepamusoro yepamusoro;

- sainzi inodzidza kuwanda kwezvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana zvehupenyu hwehupenyu.

Nhoroondo yekubuda kwechirango uye kubudirira kwayo

Mavambo ezviverengero akaitika munguva yekare. Kunyange zvakadaro, vanhu vaifanira kuverenga vanhu, nzvimbo, nyika, zvipfuwo, nezvimwewo.

Ruzivo rwekutanga pamusoro pemabasa akadaro ndewezana remakore rechi5 BC. E. Vakanga vakaitwa muChina. Kuzvidavirira kune vagari vakasununguka nezera uye zvepabonde kwakaitwa muRoma yekare. Munyika yekare, kuberekwa kwose kwakabatanidzwa muzvinyorwa zvakasiyana. Nhoroondo yakasiyana yakatorwa nevarume vezera remakore. Nzvimbo yakarongwa yakanyorwa, kusanganisira data pazvivako uye varanda, kuverenga uye mari.

Muna 1061, nhamba yekutanga yekuverengwa kwevanhu yakaitwa muEngland. Mamiriyoni mazana maviri nemakumi mana emamiriyoni akaongororwa kuti awane data. Iko kune ruzivo pamusoro pekuverengwa kwevanhu muzana remakore rechi13. The Mongolian khans. Vaida dheta kuti vatore mitero kubva munzvimbo dzakatorwa dzeRussia.

Mumazana emakore anotevera, nhamba dzakaenderera mberi dzichigadzirwa uye muzana remakore rechi17. Akawana zvarinoreva mukuraira kwesayenzi. Yakanga yakavakirwa pazvikoro zviviri. Yokutanga yeizvi ndiChirungu, iyo inoshandisa masangano ezvematongerwo enyika. Chikoro chechipiri chikamu cheGermany, icho chakanyanya kufunganya nekutsanangura zvinhu. Mukutanga kwezana remakore rechi19. Sayenzi yakawana hutatu hutungamiri - nhamba uye masvomhu, iyo yakarongedzwa nemuongorori weBelgium Adolf Quetelet.

Mukutanga kwezana remakore rechi20. Iyi chirango yakatanga kushandisa pfungwa yekuda. Nzira dzayo dzakabvumirwa kuita shanduko yezvemagariro ezvokutengeswa kwevatengi uye chigadzirwa chemhizha, uyewo mararamiro ehupenyu hwevanhu.

Kushanda kwenhamba yekucherechedza kwakaitwa mukati memakore eSoviet power. Vakabvumira kuti vaone mufananidzo wose wehupfumi hwenyika huri kubuda. Basa rehuwandu harina kurega kunyange panguva yehondo neFascist Germany. Munguva iyi yei nyika yaive nechido chekuverenga kwezvinhu uye zvebasa rezvemabasa. Mukuwedzera, ruzivo pamusoro pekufambisa kwekugadzirwa kwemhepo kunzvimbo dzekumabvazuva kwaikosha zvikuru.

Basa rakashanda rezviverengero rakaitwa mushure mehondo, shure kwemazuva ano. Pasina iyi yesayenzi, kufambira mberi kwehupfumi hwenyika yehurumende uye zvese zvehupfumi zvayo hazvigoneki.

Sangano re data acquisition system

Izvo zvikamu zvehuwandu ndezvekuti:

- masangano ehurumende nehurumende;

- Nhamba dzisina kukodzera uye dzepachivande;

- nhoroondo yedhipatimendi.

Sangano rekucherechedza zvinyorwa rinotanga nemasangano nematare omunharaunda. Basa ravo rinotungamirirwa nemitemo yemitemo yezvidzidzo zvehurumende. Ivo, ivowo, vari pasi peNational Statistics Committee yeRussia.

Mishumo yeDhipatimendi inogadzirwa nemabhizimisi nemasangano eimwe nzvimbo yebasa. Somuenzaniso, nhamba dzemabhangi, tsika, nezvimwe.

Chigadzirwa chekushandisa

Federal statistical observation inosanganisira:

- zviratidzo zvezinga re macroeconomic;

- data sezvikamu;

- nhamba dzehutano hwehupenyu uye hwemagariro evanhu;

- kuenzanirana kwenyika uye kwenyika.

Dhiyabhorosi yekuongorora zvinyorwa inoparidzirwa nenzira yezvinyorwa zvinyorwa uye zvinyorwa, kuratidza ruzivo uye mabhuku.

Nhanho dzevanoongorora tsvakurudzo

Kuunganidza nekunyorwa kwemashoko echokwadi ehumwe rutivi rwehupenyu hwepachena hunoitwa maererano nechimwe chirongwa. Pane zvikamu zvakasiyana zvekucherechedza. Uye mumwe nomumwe wavo anoshandisa nzira dzake.

Ndekupi kuwanda kwekucherechedza kunotangira? Nhamba dzinouya chete pakushanda mushure mekunge dambudziko racho rakanyatsogadzirwa. Izvo zvakatsunga kufunga nezvechinangwa chekutsvakurudza uye pfungwa yemashoko anoda kuverengwa.

Izvo zviitiko zvakarongeka zvekucherechedza zvinyorwa hazvigoneki kunze kwekutanga kwekudzidza kwehutano. Iri gwaro rakagadzirirwa nevatengi pakutsvakurudza mune ramangwana. Mashoko ekutaura anotsanangura:

- akadzidza zvinhu;

- kuwanikwa kwehana uye mafungiro anoda kuvimbiswa kana kupomera;

- kufambira mberi kwechidzidzo;

- mazwi ekucherechedza.

Kubva maererano nemashoko ekutaura, sarudzo yeramangwana rekuongorora tsananguro inogadzirwa, pamwe chete nehurongwa hwekucherechedza purogiramu, iyo inongororwa yemafungiro ezvinhu zvinofanira kunyorwa, kana mibvunzo kune mhinduro dzingatendeseka dzinofanira kuwanikwa. Muenzaniso wepurogiramu yakadaro inogona kushanda semibvunzo yekushandisa yekuverengwa kwevanhu.

Panzvimbo inotevera, mashoko anounganidzwa. Nzira yekuitisa iyo inotarisirwawo nepurogiramu yezvinyorwa zvekucherechedza. Zvadaro sarudzo ye data yakanyorwa uye yakagadzirwa maererano nemaitiro akasiyana-siyana. Izvo chete mushure mokunge zvose zvakagamuchirwa zvakagamuchirwa zviri pasi pekuongorora Iyi ndiyo nhanho inotevera yeongororo yekucherechedza, kushandiswa kwemashoko, zviyero uye zviyero zvehuwandu, nezvimwe. Kupedzwa kwehupfumi uye kupa kwayo kune mutengi kunopedza basa rayo.

Iko kunofanira kutakurwa mupfungwa kuti nhamba yekucherechedza, kuva sarudzo yakarongeka yakagadziriswa yedata, inonyanya kugadzikana kuvimbika kwezvakagadziriswa zvakaitwa pachikamu chekupedzisira. Ndicho chikonzero kuwanikwa kwemashoko echokwadi ndiyo basa guru rekuverenga.

Data data

Izvo ruzivo rwunoda kuti chidzidzo chive chekutanga kana chechipiri. Rudzi rwekutanga rwe data runosanganisira izvo zvisingawanikwi panguva yekubudiswa kwebasa rekugadzira. Secondary information iri kutowanikwa. Yakawanikwa pakutanga apo ichiita mamwe mabasa.

Muenzaniso wekuongorororwa kwenhamba mumutsara wezvinyorwa zvese ndeye mubvunzo wevarwere mune zvipatara zvezvechiremba, kukurukurirana kwechinetso chakasiyana pamusangano, kuwana mhinduro kubva kune vanoenda kunotengesa, nezvimwe zvakadaro.

Kugamuchira ruzivo rwechipiri dzimwe nguva kunonzi "raibhurari" kana "hofisi". Uye nokuda kwekuunganidza kwavo, zvose mukati nekunze zvinogona kuve zvakabatanidzwa. Ndeupi musiyano wavo?

Muenzaniso wekuongorororwa kwemashoko uchishandisa mukati memvura yepamusoro ndiko kushandiswa kwe:

- ruzivo rwehutano hwesangano;

- data kubva kune zvidzidzo zvekare;

- Zvakanyorwa mishumo yevashandi.

Dheinheji yekunze yekunze inowanikwa kubva:

- nhoroondo yematanhatu emitumbi;

- electronic database;

- mass media;

- Mishumo yevanoshamwaridzana nehutano, masangano ekudhinda, nezvimwe

Nzira dzekuunganidza data

Iko kunyoresa kwekunyora kwemashoko kunodiwa kutsvakurudza kwakaitwa sei? Iko kune nzira dzinotevera dzekuongororwa kwemashoko: zvakananga uye zvinyorwa, tsvakurudzo, pamwe nekuedza.

Chokutanga chazvo chinoitwa pakunyoresa kweavo kana zvimwe zviitiko nemuongorori pachake. Muenzaniso wekucherechedza zvakananga ndekutsvakurudza kwehukuru hwevatasvi vemigwagwa nemamita akaiswa zvakanyanyisa.

Nzira yekunyorwa kwemashoko ehuwandu inosanganisira kushanda nemakadhi ekutsvaga, mabhuku ezvinyorwa , nezvimwewo.

Kuongororwa kwakawanda kwakadaro, sekuongororwa, kunosanganisira kuwana mashoko kubva kumashoko omunhu anenge asarudzwa. Panguva imwecheteyo, mapurisa anozivikanwa:

- mibvunzo, apo mupinduri pachayo pachake anopindura mibvunzo yakanyorwa;

- Mumiririri, mune imwe ruzivo inopiwa nemabhuku ekuzvidira;

-muromo, apo mabhuku akaverenga uye akanyora mune mimwe mhinduro mhinduro dzevanyori.

Munguva pfupi yapfuura, maitiro akasiyana-siyana ekubvunzurudza akawanikwa uye ave atove akaparidzirwa zvikuru . Muenzaniso weizvi unogona kuva mhinduro dzevakabvunzwa nefoni, paInternet kana ne e-mail.

Mafomu ekuunganidza data

Nzira dzekuverenga dzinoongorora dzinofanira kuva nesayenzi yakarurama. Basa risina kukodzera rakarongeka richawana tsvakurudzo mukukundikana. Zvikanganiso zvekucherechedza zvinyorwa zvichaita kuti zvikamu zvinotevera zvekubika zvibvirire. Ichi chinofanira kutakurwa mupfungwa. Mushure mezvose, kuti mhinduro yakarurama kumibvunzo inobvunzwa, zvinokosha kufunga nezvezvose zvakaitika zvidzidzo.

MuRussia, kune marudzi maviri ehurumende inotaridzika kuona. Wokutanga ari kuzvizivisa. Iko, semurairo, inoshandisa nhamba dzehupfumi hwenyika. Yechipiri chimiro ndechekucherechedza zvakanyatsorongeka. Inowana kushandiswa kwayo mukutsvakurudza kwenzira dzakadzidzwa uye zviratidzo.

Muenzaniso wekuongorororwa kwemashamba mupepa rekutanga ndiko kugamuchira mishumo ine ruzivo rwakakosha kubva kumasangano ega, mapurazi, masangano, nezvimwewo. Zvose ruzivo rwakaparidzirwa runobva pane zvinyorwa zvekuverenga kana kushandiswa kwehuwandu hwemabhizimisi. Ruzivo rwakadaro runogona kuunganidzwa kune imwe nguva yakasiyana uye runogona kuva zuva nezuva, decadal, mwedzi, roga roga, nhepfenyuro yegore negore kana yegore.

Hurongwa hwehurumende hunotaridzirwa hunoitwawo mune yechipiri. Izvi zvinokonzerwa nekuongorora kwakasiyana-siyana kunoongorora zvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana zvehupenyu hwemagariro evanhu uye zviitiko zvezvisikwa. Dhidhiyo yakadaro haigone kuwanikwa kubva mukudhindwa kwemabhizimisi. Muenzaniso wakajeka wekuongororororwa kwemaitiro akadaro ndiko kuverenga. Nhamba dzinoshanda dzeRussia dzinoitungamirira maererano nemafumiro ehupfumi, huwandu hwevanhu, kusunungura michina, minda isingagumi, kuvakwa kusina kukwana, nezvimwewo.

Mushandisi wekashandiswa

Vose vanoshanda pamatanho ekucherechedza kunobva pamhando dzakasiyana. Ichi ndicho chokutanga chekutsvakurudza. Chechipiri ndiyo mirayiridzo yepamutemo yekuzadza mhinduro dzinodiwa uye mafomu.

Chinhu chakadaro chekuverenga zvinyorwa, sechimiro, ibvunzo remibvunzo, mibvunzo yenhau, nezvimwewo. Pamitauro iyi inodhindwa mibvunzo inotarisirwa nemutengi mune zvekuita basa. Mune maitiro akafanana anowanikwa uye zvose zvese zvakaunganidzwa. Chimiro ichi chinoratidzika sei? Muchikamu chepamusoro chayo kune zviratidzo zvekuziva. Kuruboshwe rwepeji rimwe nerimwe pane mibvunzo yekuverenga zvinyorwa, uye kurudyi - nzvimbo yezvingapindurwa kwavari.

Kune marudzi maviri ekucherechedza mafomu. Yokutanga ipikicha yemakadhi. Yakagadzirirwa kurondedzera chinhu chimwechete chekucherechedza. Yechipiri chimiro chemufomu ndorwendo. Iyo inonyora kucherechedza pane zvimwe zvinhu panguva imwe chete.

Asi pasinei nokuti chirongwa uye chimiro chacho zvakanyatsogadzirwa zvakadini, federal nhamba yekucherechedza haigone kuitwa pasina mirairo. Tsamba iyi ine tsanangudzo dzose dzemashoko ekutaura, uyewo mienzaniso chaiyo uye kutungamirirwa pane nyaya dzakabatana. Iyo mirayiridzo ibhurocha rakasiyana kana rakadhindwa zvakananga pamhando ye fomu.

Mhando dzezviitiko zvekucherechedza

Sarudzo yakarurama yenzira yekuunganidza ruzivo rwakakosha inokosha pakugadzirisa kugadzirisa kwebasa racho. Kune mhando dzakawanda dzehuwandu hwekucherechedza dzinofananidzwa munguva uye kugoverwa kwezvikamu zvehuwandu hwevanhu.

Nokudaro, ruzivo runogona kuunganidzwa nguva dzose, sezvinoitika kana zvichiitika. Kuverenga kwakadaro kwakadaro ikozvino. Izvo zvinotungamirirwa uchishandisa magwaro ekutanga aya ane ruzivo rwakakosha. The Civil Registry Office muenzaniso wehutano hwakadaro. Muviri uyu unounganidza mashoko ose pamusoro pekuchinja kune huwandu hwevanhu. Pachikonzero chehurumende yemamiriro ezvinhu, zvidzidzo zvinogona kuitwa pamarwadzo nekufa, pamichato, nekudaro.

Periodic statistical observation inopiwawo nguva yenguva. Uchitore nguva dzose. Muenzaniso wekucherechedza kwakadaro ndekuverengwa kwevanhu, pamwe nekugadzirisa kweuwandu hwekutengesa kwezvinhu zvekutengeserana kwekutengesa.

Zvidzidzo zvekuongorora zvinogona kuitwa nguva nenguva, pasina chero periodicity. Muchiitiko ichi vanonzi imwe nguva-nguva. Muenzaniso wekucherechedza kwakadaro kunogona kuva imwe-off account yemasangano emitambo yakarongedzerwa nevadzidzi.

Datatimendi yedhara inogona kusiyaniswa maererano nehuwandu hwemasero evanhu. Pachikonzero ichi, kuongororwa kunoenderera kunosarudzwa. Iko inotanga kuisa pakunyoresa maitiro ehuwandu hwezvikamu. Nzira yakadaro inotibvumira kuwana ruzivo rwakakwana rwechinhu chiri pasi pekudzidza. Muenzaniso wekuenderera mberi nekuongorora ndehuwandu hwevanhu.

Zvikamu zvega ega zvevanhu vanogonawo kuongororwa. Muchiitiko ichi, nhamba yekucherechedza ichanyarara. Uyewo, yakaparadzaniswa mune zvinyorwa zvinotevera:

- sampling, iyo ndiyo kusarudzwa kwechikamu chevanhu vanoongororwa (muenzaniso ndekuongororwa kwemaonero evanhu);

- iyo huru yakawanda, apo chikamu ichocho chevanhu chichiongororwa, iyo inopa mupiro wechiitiko chekudzidza ichi ndicho chikuru (somuenzaniso, kuongorora kugadzirwa kwemaguta mumaguta ane mamiriyoni evanhu);

- monographic kuongorora, kana chikwata chimwe chete chevanhu chichionekwa zvakadzama (somuenzaniso, mhuri panguva yekutanga gadziriro yekudzidza).

Ndeupi rudzi rwekucherechedza kunosarudzwa? Zvose zvinopfuurira uye kusagadziriswa kuongororwa zvinobatsira uye zvinokanganisa. Vanofanirwa kuverengerwa pakusarudza nzira yekuverenga.

Saka, kuongorora kunoramba kuripo:

- nekuda kwekugoverwa kwezvikwata zvose zvehuwandu zvinopa data yakarurama kwazvo;

- inotora nguva yakawanda uye inoda mamwe mari;

- kwete nguva dzose kuvhara zvinhu zvose zvekugadziriswa;

- Kazhinji nguva yekugadzirisa yemigumisiro yakawanikwa, iyo inogona kukanganisa kukosha kwezviwanikwa.

Kana iri yekuona kusakwana, ndeyokuti:

- zvine ngozi kuti chikamu chekudzidza hachizorevi zvakarurama zvakagadzirirwa zvachose;

- anokwanisa kukanganwa izvo kana zvimwe zviratidzo zvinoshamisa zvinosanganisira zvikanganiso zvekucherechedza.

Kudzora kwemashoko akawanikwa

Dzimwe pabvunzo data, pane zvimwe kusabvumirana pakati chaiko uye kukosha kwacho kwakatarwa zviri kudzidzwa variables. Izvi zvinogona kukanganisa:

1. Registration. malfunctioning uyu Monitored nzvimbo mashoko (muzviitiko zvizhinji vanobhadharwa kure). Somuenzaniso, kapepa zviri chinyoreso mukugadzirwa magwaro kuti kuhofisi yokunyoresa.
2. Representativeness. zvikanganiso izvi kuitika apo munguva chichiitwa kuongorora yatorwa chikamu rinomiririra yose yakaipa.
3. Random. Ichi kukanganisa kuti kwakaitika pasi pokudzora kuneta, inattention, uye zvimwewo. Somuenzaniso, mashoko zvisiri kurekodha zvinyorwa-muchengeti.
4. Enderana. zvikanganiso zvakadaro kutungamirira kuukama underestimation kana overestimation ari kudzidzwa parameters. Somuenzaniso, rounding tsika vachipedzisira 0 kana 5.

Kudzora zvikanganiso ndivo nzira mbiri kushandiswa nhamba. Wokutanga vavo - zvisingarambiki. Kunosanganisira kushandisa kwezviitiko yepamusoro ukama. Somuenzaniso, mwana makore 8 okuberekwa haagoni kuva vana vake.

It rinoshandiswa nhamba uye svomhu kuzvidzora zviratidzo. It anoshandisa quantitative ukama pakati tsika. Muenzaniso: Count = Count 4 3 - Count 1 + Count 2.