Chii chichaitika mafuta uye Ruble pashure pamusoro pegomo iri Doha?

Munguva Soviet, ivo vanhuwo vagari venyika mitengo mafuta vakanga vasingafariri, vane zvimwe zvinetso zvakakwana, asi zvino rava musoro kunyange pakati pamudyandigere. Wirai yeHydrocarbon mashoko vainzwa muchikwama changu zvose kubva billionaires kune vanhuwo vashandi, uyo anoshandiswa kupedza pazororo ravo kune dzimwe plesieroorde, izvo zvaiva chaizvo inokwanisika kwenguva refu. Kuzorwa dhora simba Ruble, uye izvi zvave kuvhiringa zvavo vanogara. The mhaka Kushatiswa upfumi ezvinhu, vamwe vanoona Western zvirango zvavakatemerwa mushure annexation pakati Crimea, asi vaongorori vanoti zvakawanda zvichiri, uye zvakawanda, avo bhowa pezvakaitwa zvinokonzerwa pakugumburwa mitengo mafuta. Saka chii napo matanho api anotorwa kuvandudza nayo?

Nei mafuta akawira?

Oiri - chigadzirwa uye mutengo wayo kunobva zvitengeswa uye kudiwa. Zvave kwakaratidza kuti kwaiva Statistical kukanganisa kwakaitwa stockbrokers, uye yaisanganisira achiwedzeredza yakatsvuka eThe makuru zvakawanda. Nemamwe mashoko, zvose vaburitsi vatengi vakafunga kuti mafuta ari kupfuura zvakanga, uye akazosvika yakareba. Zvinoita sokuti, ndiko kufungawo kusarurama iri chokwadi, kuti natsai, uye zvose achawira munzvimbo. Part zvakaitika, mutengo vakatanga kumuka kubva pamwero $ 29 chete mudende, asi yaimbova vanopfuura zana uye havana kuwana kugara pa nhamba maviri nehafu nguva shoma, uye nokuda kwechikonzero chakanaka. Chekutanga, kumusika hombe yakadai, somunhu yeHydrocarbon, inert chaiyo nokuda kukura kwavo, uye chepiri kuti kwokudiwa anoramba zvikuru pasi, asi romugove yakawedzera mushure vaizoitwazve zvirango ne Iran. Countries kuti pave mafuta akatanga kufungisisa kuitwa kufambisa, zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti nezvenzvimbo Russia haisi chakaipa pakati pavo.

mafuta pokeria

The mashandiro kuti simba pamusoro mutengo maonero ari nyore chaizvo. Kana iwe usingagoni kuwedzera vade uye ndakadaro nokuda kuderera bhizimisi basa munyika, kunyanya mu Latin America, zviri chete - kuti -oma kugadzirwa mavhoriyamu. Pasinei bhuku zvinobvira Kudzikamiswa matanho, kuti awane mugumisiro zvikazooneka kuti kupfuura kutarisirwa. Mutengo mafuta vachamuka kunyange Jack kukwira kana kugadzirwa kwayo ipfupi, asi kwete munyika iyoyo, uye akapotsa zvose kamwechete. In ichi chisingadzivisiki kurasikirwa nguva panguva apo mari chauya ipfupi. Uye kunyange kana weOPEC nyika, kubudikidza tsanangudzo, tsvaka kutevera mutemo nenzvimbo havagoni pachavo, mamiriro iro chikumbiro riri akapawo uye Libya, Iraq, uye ikozvino Iran, chibvumirano ichi matambudziko chaizvo. Panyaya iyi, mumwe nomumwe uye anoda "kuchovha tichiregeredza nevamwe." Regai munhu kunoderedza kugadzirwa matambudziko uye asingagamuchiri kubatsirwa, uye mumwe nomumwe kunyika iri kuita kwete kurasikirwa uye tifadzwe vamwe 'kuitwa. Izvi zvakaenderera mberi kwenguva refu, uye mutambo uyu wakafanana nowenyika Poker pamwe Bluff ake. Saudi Arabia akaratidza hanya chakakwana, zvichiratidza kuti rezasi mutengo rakanyatsojeka zvinogamuchirika, uye vokuAmerica dumped pamusoro pamusika mijenya zvose itsva nhumbi. The mubvunzo waiva chete vachapona yakareba kupfuura nhangemutange. Makambani akawanda akaenda kusauka uye akabuda mutambo, apo vamwe akaderedza kurimwa, vamwe vakatenga zvakaipa. Zvikuru yaigona hahuzogari.

Iranian dambudziko

In February 2016 yemigodhi Mapoka Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela uye Kuwait, pakupedzisira akasarudza kumisa chipingamupinyi nekukura mitengo mafuta. Kuti izvi zvidaro, Joint rokutanga chisarudzo pamusoro akavarambidza okuwana pachiyero kwakaitika January gore rino. Documentation pamugove wakaganhurwa unofanira kutora nzvimbo musi April 17 panguva wegomo riri kupfuura nokutengesa Mahydrocarbon munyika. The huru dambudziko mukuvhiringidza kushanda kuti nechiyero kupinda tsika saka kure rave kuramba Iran kuti kutsigira nezvamunobvumirana Consolidated mhinduro, iyo wakapindwa nehafu gumi nyika hanya. Mushure kushanda hurukuro wakaitwa pakati gurukota Energy, kuti pfungwa nyika munharaunda uye Novak Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi akaudzwa kuti kugadzirwa nekurovererwa ichaitwa kunyange kana Tehran anoramba kupomba mafuta sezvaaidya achida.

"Oma" nhengo

Maererano Novak, oiri yakagwamba nechando havagoni nemashanu chete inoti kare akaita sarudzo iyi, uye vamwe vose vanoda kutsigira urongwa zvainanga kuwedzera mutengo mbishi zvinhu kuti yaizova nomufaro. Panguva iyoyowo chero kumanikidza kana nokuiswa zvirango kudivi weOPEC nevamwe "uyo akabatana" nyika dziripowo. Nedzenyu mabhuku akati kuti pashure aya asisiri Riyadh kufungawo Iran nezvetsika, kunyange kare kwakabatana mukana kuoma nechando pamwe mutemo munyika kugadzirwa. Tehran ave saka kure vakaramba kutsigira weOPEC uye Russia, uye ane chikonzero chakanaka - kwemakumi emakore national upfumi wava muduku zvirango, uye ikozvino achida chaizvo kuenda kumashure padanho yeHydrocarbon kunze kwenyika. Production muna Iran mumwedzi apfuura amuka mamiriyoni 2,9. Emiti kuti 3.2.

The hondo pakati dzinokura maviri

Mamiriro pamwe kwokudiwa mafuta anoramba zvakaoma, maererano weOPEC, zviri Pari mamiriyoni 1,2 chete emiti pazuva. Saka, zvakaoma kutarisira kuti kunyange kukwirira muna Doha uye ahwo kuchikosha kukanganisa pamisika ezvinhu, uye mutengo vachaenda hasha, zvakare kudiwa unotadza zvitengeswa. Zvisinei, chimwe chinhu achiri kudiwa, kunyanya kuti nokuda kuderera profitability US mafuta kugadzirwa mavhoriyamu wapera, uye kudiwa zviri zvishoma nezvishoma asi zvirokwazvo akapinda kukura. Market pavakatambudzwa mutengo vakapfuura mucherechedzo $ 44. It anoridza pamusoro muitiro kuwedzera Iranian uye Iraqi zvitengeswa. Ndoupi uchava yemamiriro muitiro ikozvino zvakaoma kufungidzira.

Mberi tarisiro kana kutarisira kubudirira?

kuera World zvinobva kwete chete pane kongiri chokwadi, vanovimba kuti pamwero waitarisira. The kukasaitwa musangano muna Doha zvakakanganisa Russian MICEX uye RTS, vakasvika ano kunonyanyisa tsika haana kuonekwa kubvira kuwa 2008 kusvika chipo. Akasimbisa Ruble Gengi pamusoro kweeuro (asingasviki 74 rubles.) Uye US dhora. The Russian National mari akaratidza mukuru kukura rates, ari uchitsanya pakati kusimukira. Izvi zviitiko zvakanaka arege Zvisinei, kukonzera zvakanyanya netariro mwoyo, izvo zvinokonzerwa features, asi zvakadaro hapana kubudirira, saka indices, uyewo mapoka anogona kuridza shure.

dzakasiyana Mana pfupi-rokuti nyanzvi Zvaifungidzirwa

The kuitika zviri kuuya zviitiko zvingamuka nenzira dzakasiyana, asi chaizvoizvo zvingabva mana chete, uye vose kuvimba nezvenzvimbo Iran. The Ungangove (35%) vane mukana kutaurirana pasina rutsigiro Tehran nokuda ichi zvinenge havafaniri kuratidza nesimba. Projected zvaitika: mafuta pa $ 45 chete dhiramu "Brent", mari 65 rubles. The nzira yechipiri - Iran inotsigira kukwirira, asi achiri akaronga kuwedzera kugadzirwa (mukana 30%). Mutengo mafuta achava mumwe chete, kureva, $ 45, kana kunyange yakakwirira, panguva $ 47, uye Ruble achamuka 64 muzana dhora. Possible Muchiitiko wechitatu, kukwirira nyika havabvumirani (the ndingangokuvara "mari Bank" anozivisa, 20%). Richava zvakaipa, mari vachamuka mutengo kusvika 75-78 rubles, mafuta kuwira shure $ 30, apo zvikuru netariro kuverengwa kusvika 35. 15% of zvinofungidzirwa ndingangokuvara netariro muchiitiko, kana Iran anogamuchira yaida mashoko uye muganhu kugadzirwa kuwedzera kusvika mamiriyoni 2,9. bhawa. pazuva. Muchiitiko chino, tinogona kutarisira mutengo $ 47 kana kunyange $ 50. Ruble achasimbisa kusvika 62-63 rubles.

Long-izwi zvinotarisirwa

Kufunga kuti Doha kumusangano akauya chinhu, hapana chikonzero, kwete zvingadai vanofanira kuronga. Vakaongorora "mari" anoratidza kuti aitarisira avhareji mugumisiro, mutengo mafuta raiva madhora 42,5 paminiti mudhiramu muna 2nd kota, 45 ari 3 Rd, uye pakazopera gore kuchasvika 47,5 kana 50. kutadzisa kukura achava kumutsidzirwa kugadzirwa Argentina, Libya, Brazil uye dzimwe nyika umo bhizimisi iri ndisiri. By pakutanga 2017 mari Gengi iri projected mu kuwanda 58-60 rubles (mukuru Economist ari "BCS"). Aramba mumwe muongorori, Kuzmin ( "Renaissance Capital"), anotarisira kuti RUR / USD 65. Ngationei wavo zvakarurama.