Criterion Kelly: tsanangudzo yesarudzo, mazano, zvigaro uye zvisingabatsiri

Kufarira kwomunhu mumari yekukurumidza pasina basa risina basa kwakaguma mukududzirwa kwekasinos uye sweepstakes uyeimwe kubhejera. Mune zviitiko zvakawanda, mabheti anowanikwa zvichienderana ne intuition kana zvachose. Zvisinei, vamwe vanotenda kuti haufaniri kuvimba chete nehupfumi, asi iwe unogona kuziva izvo danda richaunza kukunda. Nokuda kweizvi, zvakasiyana siyana zvemasvomhu zvakashandiswa. Imwe yakadaro nzira ndeyeKelly test.

Pamusoro pesarudzo

Iyi nzira yezvemari yakagadzirwa naJohn Kelly muna 1956. Chinonyanya kukosha ndechokuti uone kuwanda kwebheji zvichienderana nebhengi riripo. Kushandiswa kwegadziriro iyi pane zvakaoma. Uye pakutanga, mikana yekurasika inonyanya kudarika kuwandisa kwekubhadhara mabheji. Mukuwedzera, hazvidziviriri pakurwisana uye hazvirevi kuti mabheti ose akaenzana nekushanda kwayo achange achikunda. Izvi zvinoshanda kune dzimwe nzira dzose dziripo. Munhoroondo yose, hakuna munhu akambobudirira mukugadzira chimiro chakanaka chinokubvumira kuti iwe ugare uchikunda mukaseti, kuchinjana, kana sweepstakes.

Chinokosha chekutsvaga kwaKelly ndiko kuverenga kwechiitiko chechiitiko chacho kuburikidza nekuongorora kwakarurama kwezvikonzero zvakasiyana uye kuguma kunotorwa pachikonzero chavo. Iko kuongorora kwekugadzirwa kwezviitiko kunofanira kusiyana nezvinofungwa nevamwe, zvakadai sebhukuki. Kutanga, iwe unofanirwa kutarisa mabheji ayo, maererano nemutambi, anofungidzirwa nevakabhuku. Kana, maererano nemutambi, havakwanisi, saka vanofanirwa kuita bheti, iyo yakakura iyo inofanira kuverengwa kuburikidza neyo fomu.

Calculation formula

Kukura kwebhati = (chiyero chebhuku rebhukiki * kuongorora kwezviitiko zvomutambi - 1) / (coefficient yehofisi yebhukuki 1)

Iko kuongororwa kwezviitiko zvomutambi wacho zvakapinda muyo fomu nenzira yehuwandu hwepamusoro. Izvi zvinoreva kuti mukana unoratidzirwa muzana unofanira kugoverwa nemakumi mashanu, uye nhamba inobviswa inowedzerwa kumushonga.

Nzira yekuverenga

Imwe yenharaunda umo kechikwereti chaKelly chinowanzoshandiswa chiri mumitambo yekubheja. Zvechokwadi, hazvisi zvakaoma kuverenga bheti inogona kutengeswa.

Nheyo ihwo hukuru hwemari yemutambi. Somuenzaniso, iri chiuru.

Bhuku racho rinotenda kuti kambani yebhola "A" ichakunda nekambani "B" uye coefficient iri 2.0. Mutambi anofunga kuti bheji yakanyanyisa. Zvikonzero zvekuti nei pfungwa yake yakasiyana yakasiyana zvikuru. Semuenzaniso, klabhu "A" iri muhupenyu hwakanaka, klabhu "B" ine vatambi vanokuvadzwa, izvo zvingakanganisa kushanda. Kirasi "A" inowanzoita zvakanaka munharaunda iyi yemwaka. Somugumisiro wekuongorora, mutambi anofunga kuti mukana wekukunda klabhu "A" ndeye 58% (0.58).

Iko kuverenga kuchaita seizvi:

(2.0 * 0.58-1) / (2-1) = 0.176

Kuti ishandure mukutaura kwemari, ukuru hwebheji inofanira kuwedzerwa ne100. Sezvo chikonzero chekuverenga achishandisa kero yeKelly, bheti ichava 176.

Kana zvakaguma zvisingabatsiri, pari inotevera inotarirwa zvichienderana nemari yakasara, kureva, kubva ku824.

Mamiriro ezvinhu akakodzera kuverenga

Chimwe chezvikamu zvekubudirira nderokuongorora kwakarurama kwechokwadi. Nokuda kweizvi zvinokurudzirwa kuti zviitwe, zviri mumamiriro ezvinhu akanaka uye mupfungwa. Kuneta, kushushikana mushure mokurasikirwa, kufara pashure pokunge wanyanya kuwedzera mukana wekukanganisa nekuongorora kwezviitiko, uye chirevo chaKelly hachikwanisi kuverengwa zvakanaka.

Mikana yokuti zviitiko zvichaitika mune imwe nzira hazvigone kuva 100% kana pedyo neizvi.

Zvakakosha kuti urege kudzikisa coefficients. Izvo zvinodiwa kuti hazvisi pasi pe 1.8. Kana zvisina kudaro, pfuma ichange isingakoshi, uye kuongorora kunofanira kushandiswa nguva shoma.

Kukanganisa kwegadziriro

Chirevo chaKelly chirongwa chisingakubvumiri kuti uwane pfuma pakarepo. Maererano nenyanzvi, masuzhinji anowanikwa purogiramu yevanga iri 5%. Kuwedzera kwaro kunogoneka nekugara uchiruramisa kufanotaura kwezviitiko, izvo zvisingaiti nguva dzose zvichiitika. Kuti uite izvi, iwe unoda kuwana ruzivo, naizvozvo vatsva havakurudzi kushandisa zano iri.

Kuti uwane zvinopfuura, iwe unofanirwa kuva nekodzero yekuchengetedza mabhengi. Nyanzvi dzinoti dzinofanira kunge dzakaenzana nemakore gumi nemashanu ari muchengeti wemitambo.

Mabatsiro emagariro

Kubatsira kukuru kwekutsvaga kwaKelly kunodzivirira kwakanaka pakurasikirwa. Kana munhu akaita chikanganiso uye akarasikirwa nebheji, saka iyi haisi mari yose yaanayo. Panguva imwechete iyo bhagheni inoderera, ukuru hwehuwandu hunotevera hunoderera. Saka, unogona kutamba kwenguva yakakwana. Kana kukunda kunotsiviwa ne winnings, iyo inowanzoitika nguva dzose, saka iwe unogona kutamba nguva isingagumi.

Kune avo vakangotanga kushandisa nzira yeKelly criterion, zvinokurudzirwa kusaita bheji yakawanikwa semugumisiro wekuverenga nemaitiro, inogona kuitwa zvishomanana kana kunyange hafu. Sezvaunowana ruzivo rwakakosha mumunda wekufungidzira cheequicients yevakabhiki uye nekugadzirwa kwekubudirira nzira yekuongorora nekufanotaura kwezviitiko, muyero ungave wakaenzana neakaverengwa.

Mukuwedzera, urongwa uhwu hunoita kuti iwe uwanze kuwana. Nekuongororwa kwakakodzera uye kuverenga, mari inogadzikana inotsigirwa. Iyo yakakwirira bhangi, iyo yakawanda iyo iyo inokubvumira kuti iwe uwedzere zvakanyanya kupona. Asi huwandu hwekurasikirwa kana mhosho inowedzerawo.

Kutevedzera kweKelly kunoshandiswa pakutsinhanisa, mune casino nekutsvaga matanho emigumisiro yezviitiko zvemitambo. Nemhaka yekuoma kwechirongwa, vatambi vakawanda vanosarudza kushandisa dzimwe nzira dzisingasviki. Nokudaro mutambi haafaniri kusungirwa kuti ave nechekushandisa kushandisa imwe chete nzira yekuverenga, zvinokwanisika kushandisa zvinguva imwe chete panguva imwe chete.