Pfungwa kwemitero uye mari, uye chokwadi chacho nokuda Kushandurwa upfumi

The ano Kugadzirwa kwemasvomhu zvoupfumi pachisara mitoo anogona yakavimbika kuongorora prognostic uye interpolated yokutevedzera simba pezvakaitwa uye kujekesa pfungwa mutero uye vachibhadharisa pakuchinja kuchinja upfumi. Hapana tsaona yazvino econometrics unoshandiswa sechinhu chokutsigira kana kuramba mamwe yokungotaura nzvimbo.

Munyika zvoupfumi pfungwa iri kuisa mberi pfungwa dzakawanda nechokuita mitero uye simba rinomutsa yavateresi migumisiro, uye kuwedzera kugadzirisa chii chinoumba pfungwa mutero uye chokwadi yaro siyana yokutevedzera hwenyika. Maererano neoclassical zvoupfumi pfungwa iri 70s. XX remakore. Akakurukura dzidziso rive. Vatsigiri Its - kunyanya masayendisiti American tora chaizvoizvo chokwadi Leffera kufunga mutero maronda zvakakodzera. Representatives dzidziso inopa ona pakati kukonzera nezvimwewo mitengo mukuru mitero uye kunyatsoomerera mashoko mitero uye mari.

Kana ari Russian upfumi kuwedzera mitengo chokuita mutero unodiwa? Kuti tipindure mubvunzo uyu unogona kufungidzira ose zvakananga uye ipapo kunanga mutero zveminda sezvo vamwe avhareji mutero unodiwa vawanda neDare GDP, vachishandisa zveupfumi uye akarongeka kuongorora nzira.

In wakateya kuwirirana pakati prices izvi uye mutengi mutengo indekisi (the CPI), ndokudzokera kuti yakananga kukanganisa mitengo zvinopa mitero zvakananga pakati prices dzavo uye simba kuti mitengo iri rinenge kunonoka penguva (inonyanya kuwirirana coefficient chikawira pamusoro kumwedzi). Panguva iyoyowo, avhareji mugove zvisina kunanga mitero kubva GDP, kumanikidza upfumi iyo kazhinji zvava pedyo mugadziri kuti vatengi, zvakabatanidzwa zvishoma chakada correlated pamwe mwero mitengo.

Izvi zvinoratidza kuti simba rinomutsa kwemitero yakananga uye prices vari yekudyidzana nokukurumidza kubatsira mitengo pane kuchinja mune zvisina kunanga, asi nekuti vamwe kuchinja uye pfungwa iyoyo mutero uye kubhadhara. Zvisinei, ari pedyo ari ukama haisi zvakakwana yakakwirira pakati pavo. Saka, kuwedzera mitero, zvose yakananga uye isina kunanga, ari chete zvishomanana parura mitengo, basa rinokosha pano kuramba kutamba kupfuura dzinodhura kupinza zvinoriumba uye zvimwe zvinhu zvakakodzera kuti National kugadzirwa chidimbu.

Ngatidzokerei kune rinokosha nenzvimbo yokuti ukama huri pakati vaitaura kuti nemari, mari uye zvoupfumi slowdown. Kushaya mari Nde chikonzero rinoita pakugwamba inivhesitimendi. Check out chinzvimbo ichi dzidziso rinobata zvaibvira kuongorora vachiwirirana kubatana pakati avhareji mwero yakananga mutero uye padanho profitability kuti kutengeswa zvigadzirwa. Kazhinji, kutsamira yakaderera chaizvo. Mamiriro acho ezvinhu akafanana ne pedyo kubatana mugove zvisina kunanga kubva GDP uye padanho profitability kwenguva chaiyo munguva. Pano, akaipa ukoshi kwese ratios kuchengetwa Ivan Kuchin maererano, i.e. Uprofita kukura zvisina kunanga kwemitero, rezasi padanho profitability.

ezvinhu akadaro akasika uko dzekare pfungwa mitero uye vamwe vakachinja, uye mutero mutoro iri kwaita vakapfuurira mutengi parutivi Proportional mutengo mitengo sezvo chichiwedzera mari inoshandiswa mari. Izvi zvingaratidza wokuwedzera kuwirirana kuongorora uye pedyo kubatana pakati pachiyero humwechete Ruble kuti goho uye padanho mutero kuna GDP Ruble.

Muchidimbu, mutero nezvainoita kunyatsoshanda National kugadzirwa akafanirwa vainyatsotarisirwa. Normal inofanira kuzivikanwa somunhu mutero ezvinhu, imwe pfungwa kwemitero uye mari, izvo hapana vhiringidza vakarongeka hurumende ichiisa mari.

Zvisinei, imwe kuongorora mamiriro yomutero tsika inosimbisa zvinotevera:

a) aitungamirira basa parudzi zvisina kunanga mitero mitengo mari, saka kudzvanyirira kugadzirwa;

b) munhu kunyora nezvavo zvainoita dziine zvakananga mutero kunyatsoshanda;

Low kutsamira pakati huru macroeconomic zviratidzi - mitero uye guta dzoka, izvo pfungwa dzinovakwa zvose anozivikanwa mutero womuenzaniso-Western nyanzvi - unokubvumira vafunga pamusoro chaizvo zviri kuchinja kwacho munyika uye ineffectiveness ipi kuedza zvakananga kutevedzera nadzo epamba upfumi.